ARYNA UNDER FIRE: Favored Sabalenka faces serious threats

MELBOURNE, Australia (AFP) — Top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka is favorite to win a third Australian Open in four years but faces strong competition from a United States contingent led by Coco Gauff and defending champion Madison Keys.

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek is another big threat while two-time Melbourne champion Naomi Osaka will hope to be in the mix when the first Grand Slam of the year begins on Sunday.

Keys stunned title-holder Sabalenka 12 months ago in a classic three-set final to win her first major title aged 29.

But she failed to kick on from there, not winning another tournament all year, and the world number nine will have a target on her back as the title holder.

Three other Americans are ranked inside the world’s top 10: Gauff (third), Amanda Anisimova (fourth) and Jessica Pegula (sixth).

The 21-year-old Gauff last year beat Sabalenka at the French Open for her second major crown, but her best performance on the Melbourne Park hardcourts was making the semifinals in 2024.

Speaking at the mixed-teams United Cup, where she launched her 2026 campaign, Gauff said she spent the off-season “just overall becoming better and more comfortable with my game.”

Her serve has been her biggest failing and she suffered a surprise defeat to Spain’s Jessica Bouzas Maneiro at the United Cup, but recovered to defeat Swiatek 6-4, 6-2 in a statement victory.

It was Gauff’s fourth win in a row over Swiatek.

The 24-year-old Anisimova has emerged as a serious threat after enjoying the best year of her career in 2025, reaching the finals of Wimbledon and the US Open, and winning 1000 titles in Beijing and Qatar.

She also made the season-ending WTA Finals for the first time, going down to Sabalenka in three sets in a high-octane semifinal.

“She always pushes me to play my best tennis,” Sabalenka said.

Like Pegula, a first major title remains elusive for Anisimova despite going close.

Swiatek, Sabalenka’s long-term rival for the top ranking, is overdue something special in Melbourne.

The Pole is a six-time Grand Slam champion and the Australian Open is the only major she has yet to win.

She matched her best Melbourne performance by reaching last year’s semi-finals, and did so in rampant style, only to lose to an inspired Keys.

“At a Grand Slam you have to really play great for two weeks, not have any bad days, be consistent,” the 24-year-old said at the United Cup.

Japan’s former world No. 1 Osaka would be a popular winner if she were to add to her 2019 and 2021 Melbourne triumphs.

Now ranked 16th, the 28-year-old must rank as an outsider, capable of conjuring up her best tennis in flashes but unable to do it consistently and stay fit for long stretches.

World No. 5 Elena Rybakina, the Moscow-born Kazakh, is another to watch.

It is hard to look beyond Sabalenka.