Filipinos’ trust in President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. slipped to -3 percent, while Vice President Sara Duterte’s rating rose to +31 percent, according to a recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey released Friday afternoon.

The survey, conducted from 24 to 30 November 2025, covered 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above from Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.

Sampling error margins were ±3 percent for national percentages and ±6 percent for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao.

The survey did not include other high government officials, focusing only on the presidency and vice presidency.

Balance Luzon posted the President’s highest trust rating at +18, while other regions registered negative figures, including -37 in Mindanao, -8 in the National Capital Region, and -7 in the Visayas.

Overall, 41 percent of respondents said they had little trust in Marcos, while 38 percent expressed much trust, and 20 percent were undecided. His trust rating stood at +18 in June, slipped to +7 in September, and fell into negative territory in the latest survey.

The SWS said the trust questions were part of survey items commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy and released with sponsor authorization.

Area estimates were weighted using the Philippine Statistics Authority’s medium-population projections for 2025 to generate national figures.

SWS said the questions asked respondents to rate their level of trust using a six-point scale ranging from “very much trust” to “very little trust,” including an option for those undecided or unfamiliar with the personality.

The polling firm said it handled the questionnaire design, sampling, field work, data processing, and analysis using its own staff.

Vice President Duterte, meanwhile, posted no negative trust ratings nationwide. She registered a +74 trust rating in Mindanao, followed by +43 in the Visayas, +12 in Balance Luzon, and +2 in the National Capital Region.

A total of 56 percent said they had much trust in Duterte, while 26 percent had little trust and 17 percent were undecided. Her lowest rating for the year was +19 in January 2025.

Historically, negative trust ratings for sitting presidents have been rare in post-1986 Philippine politics.

SWS data showed that only former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo recorded deeper and sustained negative ratings, plunging to as low as -53 percent near the end of her term.

Other post-EDSA presidents avoided negative territory.

Former President Rodrigo Duterte maintained positive trust ratings throughout his term, while Benigno Aquino III’s lowest net satisfaction rating was +11 percent in 2015.

Joseph Estrada, by contrast, saw his trust collapse during his impeachment trial, dropping to +5 percent before his ouster in 2001.

The latest SWS findings place Marcos among a small group of presidents whose trust ratings slipped into negative territory mid-term.

Stark contrast

A veteran political pundit said President Marcos’ net trust rating plunge signaled the first time a sitting Philippine leader had entered negative territory since the post-EDSA revolt-era lows of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in the mid-2000s.

In contrast, VP Duterte’s rating climb reflected a rebound that positions her as a resilient counterweight in the fractious political landscape.

The Marcos freefall was mainly due to the recent political noise, particularly regarding the anomalous flood control projects, which were raised during the State of the Nation Address on 28 July 2025, according to RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort.

Previous slides to negative territory were similarly the result of political noise, which laid the groundwork for reforms, especially in good governance, that could eventually bear fruit, Ricafort said.

Duterte’s improved numbers weren’t a surge to her peak, at +38 percent in June, but they signaled durability, particularly as her father’s, former president Rodrigo, delivery to the ICC in March 2025 galvanized sympathy in the south, another analyst indicated.

Indulging MUPs

Marcos recently approved a staggered salary increase for military and uniformed personnel (MUP), seen as a move to keep them in line.

He issued Executive Order 107 on 3 December, approving a phased base pay increase, marking the first adjustment since the significant hike under former President Duterte in 2018.

The increase will total an approximately 15-percent pay hike over three years, implemented in three tranches.

The subsistence allowance was also increased from P150 to P350 per day for all MUP effective 1 January 2026.

Marcos described the move as a recognition of MUPs’ unwavering service, dedication, and risks —especially during natural disasters, security threats, and public safety duties — to boost morale amid the worsening economic conditions.

Critics viewed the timing suspiciously, suggesting it would help secure military and police loyalty amid reported destabilization attempts, corruption scandals and political pressures.