Metro Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) remains a nightmare for travelers with its chronically overcrowded terminals, endless queues, and frequent delays as it handles over 50 million passengers annually, far exceeding its 35-40 million capacity.

Surrounded by dense urban sprawl, expansion is impossible without mass relocations. Enter the New Manila International Airport (NMIA) in Bulakan, Bulacan, a $15-billion+ mega-project by San Miguel Corporation (SMC) to build a 2,500-hectare aerocity on land raised from Manila Bay’s coastal waters.

Promised as a game-changer with capacity for 100 million passengers, four runways, and a massive single terminal, it aims to decongest NAIA and boost economic growth.

As of late 2025, the land development is approximately 80 percent complete, with SMC investing funds and partnering with the Dutch firm Boskalis for dredging and advisory services.

Terminal construction is scheduled for early 2026, with partial operations targeted for 2028.

Aerial views show the dramatic transformation: vast flattened expanses where fishponds and bay waters once lapped. Yet, mounting evidence suggests the NMIA could prove to be a catastrophic mistake.

Built on soft, reclaimed sediment in a subsidence-prone zone, the site is experiencing accelerated subsidence due to the groundwater extraction and the weight of the infrastructure. Manila Bay’s sea levels rise at 13-15 mm/year — triple the global average — driven by climate change.

Experts, including those from Global Witness, an environmental think tank, warn that optimistic projections in project assessments underestimate these risks, potentially rendering runways flood-prone within 30 years, echoing Japan’s Kansai Airport’s sinking woes.

Ecologically, the project has devastated a key biodiversity area, destroying mangroves, disrupting fish spawning, and displacing fisherfolk communities like Taliptip — often with contested compensation. Protests highlight lost livelihoods and heightened flood risks for surrounding areas by altering water flows.

Delays from sand shortages have already pushed timelines and inflated costs beyond the original P740 billion.

SMC insists on compliance with international standards and mitigation efforts like biodiversity offsets and river cleanups, but critics argue these fall short against irreversible climate vulnerabilities.

While the Philippines needs aviation relief — especially with NAIA upgrades ongoing and Clark Airport expanding — pouring billions into a site that defies natural realities risks creating a stranded asset: a gleaming hub potentially half-submerged, burdened by maintenance, and unable to deliver promised longevity.

Alternatives like maximizing existing airports might have been the prudent path, avoiding this high-stakes gamble on sinking ground.