The Department of Agriculture (DA) projected rice imports in 2026 to fall below 4 million metric tons (MT) amid expectations of near-record domestic production.

The US Department of Agriculture had forecast Philippine rice imports at 5.5 million MT for marketing year 2025–2026. However, with the import ban already in place and the DA committed to tightly managing volumes to support farmgate prices, that projection was increasingly unlikely to be realized.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said imports the following year were expected to range between 3.6 and 3.8 million MT, sufficient to meet national demand without depressing palay prices.

The DA projected palay output in 2026 at around 20.3 million MT, nearly matching the original target for the year, although floods and other weather disturbances remained a concern. The Philippines harvested a record 20.06 million MT in 2023.

The Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) estimated rice imports for the year at 3.5 million MT, down sharply from the 4.8 million MT recorded in 2024 due to the four-month import freeze. Tiu Laurel said excess imports in 2024 and early 2025 dragged down palay prices and squeezed farmers’ incomes.

To prevent oversupply, the BPI said it would process 500,000 MT of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearances (SPICs) before the ban lifted, with shipments required by mid-February. Imports were limited to 17 ports, tariffs rose to 20 percent from 15 percent, and the usual 10% SPIC down payment was waived.

The DA urged importers to diversify beyond Vietnam, citing Cambodia, Myanmar, and other non-traditional suppliers.