The US exemption of Philippine coconut products from its “reciprocal” tariffs has raised expectations among exporters, but farmers on the ground say the policy shift has yet to translate into better incomes.

Smallholder Ellizer Manza, who tends his family’s two-hectare plot in Lopez, Quezon province, has seen no improvement since Washington scrapped the 19 percent levy on Philippine coconut exports in mid-November. “If we would feel any benefits from it, it would be seen in higher prices,” he said. “Sadly, we have felt none of that.”

Second-largest coconut producer

The Philippines is the world’s second-largest coconut producer and one of the most export-reliant, with around 3.5 million farmers depending on the crop.

Quezon province alone accounts for roughly 10 percent of national output. Last year, the US absorbed $633 million worth of Philippine coconut shipments, or nearly a quarter of total exports.

Trade Secretary Cristina Aldeguer-Roque welcomed the tariff removal, saying it would help “protect livelihoods, preserve jobs across our agricultural value chain, and create opportunities for communities that rely heavily on exports.” Coconuts accounted for about 60 percent of the products reprieved.

Gains may be modest

But analysts caution that the gains may be modest. Local think tank IBON Foundation argued that “optimism with the US tariff exemptions announced seems driven more by relief” and that “the hype shouldn’t be believed,” noting that other tropical exporters enjoy the same exemptions.

Economists say structural weaknesses — not tariffs — remain the sector’s biggest challenge. Philippine exports remain dominated by low-value products such as copra and crude oil, while regional rivals like Indonesia and Vietnam have modernized plantations and expanded high-value processing.

No guarantee small farmers will benefit

De La Salle University economist Ella Oplas said the exemption may boost demand but warned it may not reach smallholders. “There is no guarantee that coconut farmers, in particular small farmers, will benefit from such a move,” she said. “Such a move will benefit (intermediaries) and it’ll be a miracle if the effect will reach the small farmers.”

Farmers in Quezon continue to rely on labor-intensive copra production, selling to traders who pass the product on to oil mills. “Being a farmer is synonymous with poverty. If the government doesn’t do anything, things won’t change for us,” Manza said.