The Philippines is expected to miss its 2025 economic growth target of 5.5 to 6.5 percent, according to Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan.

“Honestly, that’s very unlikely now. We need to grow roughly 7 percent in the fourth quarter to achieve 5.5 percent growth for the year, and given the situations and the data that are coming out, that’s quite unlikely,” Balisacan said in a Monday press briefing.

Should full-year growth fall below 5.5 percent, 2025 would mark the third consecutive year the government has missed its economic target under President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.

Growth reached only 5.6 percent in 2024 – below the 6.0–6.5 percent goal – and 5.5 percent in 2023 against a 6.0–7.0 percent target. While these earlier misses were attributed to lingering post-pandemic effects, natural disasters, and overly optimistic projections, most Filipinos now point to the floodgate scandal as the primary cause of this year’s sharp economic slowdown.

The government had already revised its 2025 growth target downward in June—from 6–8 percent to 5.5–6.5 percent—through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), citing global uncertainty, conflicts in the Middle East, and new tariffs under the Trump administration. Third-quarter GDP growth collapsed to 4.0 percent, the weakest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

President Marcos recently met with Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr., where both acknowledged that the slowdown was largely driven by corruption allegations in Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) flood control projects – issues flagged by the President himself.

In the meeting, Marcos reiterated his belief that the economy will rebound in 2026, noting that inflation remains below target at 1.7 percent, giving the BSP room for a potential rate cut to stimulate growth if timed correctly.

Meanwhile, Balisacan said today the economy averaged 5 percent growth from January to September. Despite political and economic turbulence, he said the government aims to keep momentum steady.

“If we can sustain 5 percent for the year, that’s still, to me, quite respectable. Our intention is to move back to the top tier of the target range,” he added.

President Marcos has repeatedly called economic development the central pillar of his administration. However, the political fallout from the floodgate scandal—now considered the largest corruption scandal in Philippine history— has soured investor sentiment, crippled the local currency and sparked widespread public outrage, demanding accountability and reforms from the administration.

Marcos himself was accused by former congressman Zaldy Co of leading P100 billion in alleged budget insertions linked to ghost flood control projects, fueling public outrage and deepening economic uncertainty.

Balisacan acknowledged the impact of the political turmoil, underscoring the importance of shielding the economy from further damage.

“Amid these governance issues, it is imperative that while we pursue transparency and accountability, we ensure that the economic gains we have reaped over the years are not only protected but sustained and deepened,” he said.

“Only by keeping our growth momentum through steady and sound economic policies, and a steadfast commitment to uplift the lives of ordinary Filipinos, can we earn and maintain our people’s trust in government,” the DEPDev chief added.

The holiday season typically brings higher consumer spending, driven in part by increased dollar remittances from overseas Filipino workers. With the Philippine economy heavily dependent on consumption and remittance inflows, all eyes are now on Marcos as the country positions itself for a potential rebound in 2026.