Cebu businesses face tougher economy in 2026

The Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) on Saturday cautioned that local businesses must prepare for a tougher economy in 2026.

In its assessment report, the CCCI said Gross Domestic Product growth has slipped to 4.5 percent or 26 percent lower than the earlier projection of 5.5 percent.

The CCI said the province must brace for a downturn scenario as multiple economic indicators point to weakening performance across tourism, exports, IT-BPM services, overseas remittances and public spending.

There is a need to underscore “clear, evidence-based guidelines” to protect the business community and households from worsening economic pressures.

Pillars of economy showing signs   of strain

CCCI cited five pillars of the Philippine economy as tourism, exports, IT-BPM services, overseas remittances, and public spending, noting that four of these pillars are showing signs of strain.

Tourism, a major Cebu economic driver, is expected to contract by 25-30 percent this year amid falling arrivals and increasing competition from Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia, which are capturing higher-value markets through better airports, safer transport systems, and more predictable regulations.

CCCI said the dim tourism picture is hurting airlines, hotels, island economies, and thousands of small firms dependent on visitor spending, including Cebu’s push for meeting, incentive, convention and exhibition destination (MICE).

Exports appear steady on paper but are undergoing a strategic regression with manufacturing output declining while raw mineral shipments like gold, silver and copper increase their share.

CCCI warned that once manufacturing supply chains leave, “they seldom return” posing long term risks to Cebu’s furniture, electronics and shipbuilding sectors.

Generative AI threaten Cebu’s competitiveness

The IT-BPM industry remains relatively stable, although the chamber said generative artificial intelligence adoption overseas and rising incentives in India, Vietnam and Malaysia could weaken Cebu’s competitiveness unless digital infrastructure and workforce skills are upgraded.

 Overseas remittances remain the country’s most reliable stabilizer, but CCCI noted these flows mask deeper structural problems, including the Philippines’ growing reliance on agricultural imports such as rice,now costing an estimated P300 billion annually. This dependence heightens inflation risks for consumption-driven region like Cebu.

Public spending, which is the economy’s fifth pillar, is also under strain.

CCCI said the country continues to suffer from weak execution in utilities, transport networks, schools, hospitals and logistics Infrastructure. The chamber stressed that “governance tax” has dragged investors’ confidence.