Local pump prices are headed for a split adjustment next week, snapping a three-week run of hikes as global crude swings between oversupply jitters and geopolitical flare-ups.

Rodela Romero, director at the Department of Energy Oil Industry Management Bureau, said in a text message on Friday that the market has been seesawing all week.

Mixed movements

“Crude oil prices exhibited mixed movements over the past four days due to the following drivers: supply, demand, and geopolitics,” she said.

Romero pointed to a softening market, citing “signals from OPEC+ and weak global economic indicators” as indications of oversupply. But prices are also getting tugged back up by a “modest rebound driven by heightened geopolitical risks, especially due to the sanctions imposed on Russia, Iran and Venezuela.”

Tug-of-war

The tug-of-war is reflected in the latest Mean of Platts Singapore data: gasoline may slide by around P0.50 per liter, diesel could edge up by roughly P0.50 and kerosene is poised for a sharper climb of about P1.35.

Industry players are seeing a similar split. Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said price indications for next week point to diesel rising by P0.80 to P1.00 per liter and gasoline moving between unchanged and a slight rollback of P0.10.

He noted that middle distillate prices remain firm on tight supply due to reduced Northeast Asia outflows, China’s limited exports, and continued Russian supply disruptions, while regional gasoline prices have softened as demand slows and US inventories build.

US sanctions on Russian oil majors

Bellas added that fresh US sanctions on Russian oil majors and Washington’s renewed pressure over the Ukraine war could sway trading in the coming sessions.

This week, diesel and gasoline prices rose by P1.20 per liter, while kerosene remained unchanged due to the price freeze imposed after recent typhoons.