APEC sees export slowdown in 2026

Goods export growth across the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region is expected to cool sharply to 1.1 percent in 2026, as temporary boosts from frontloaded shipments and strong demand for high-tech products begin to fade, according to the latest APEC Regional Trends Analysis.

APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU) director Carlos Kuriyama, analyst Rhea Crisologo Hernando, and researcher Glacer Niño Vasquez said this year’s trade uptick was largely precautionary, with firms accelerating deliveries and building inventories amid concerns over potential new trade restrictions. “While economies continue to promote trade facilitation and deepen regional economic integration, rising trade-restrictive measures and trade remedies point to a more sensitive, cautious and fragmented global trade environment,” they said.

For 2025, merchandise exports and imports in APEC grew by 6.5 percent and 6.1 percent in value, while trade volumes expanded by 8.8 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively. The report said the momentum was supported by high-tech demand, supply chain diversification, and a surge in metals and semiconductor requirements tied to artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and electric vehicle manufacturing. Semiconductor billings in the region reached record levels on continued advances in chip production.

“These developments present both opportunity and exposure. Strong demand from high-tech industries is supporting near-term growth, but the region remains vulnerable to supply bottlenecks, trade policy uncertainty, price swings and intensifying global competition,” the PSU authors warned.

APEC’s overall GDP is projected to grow 3.1 percent in 2025, slightly higher than earlier estimates. However, the report noted that persistent uncertainty underscores the need for smarter fiscal policy, investment in technology, and stronger regional cooperation to support stability heading into 2026.

Kuriyama said APEC’s role in driving open dialogue remains crucial moving forward. “Consistent dialogue and shared goals can help mitigate trade policy uncertainty and reinforce long-term stability,” the PSU team said.