PAGASA says AI aids forecasts, won’t replace meteorologists

While artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital innovations are revolutionizing weather prediction, the state weather bureau said AI will remain a powerful tool—not a replacement—for human meteorologists dedicated to saving lives.

At the HANDA Pilipinas 2025 Visayas Leg, Dr. Nathaniel Servando, administrator of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), underscored AI’s growing role in providing more accurate, timely, and impact-based weather forecasts for a country hit by around 20 tropical cyclones each year.

Servando said AI helps address persistent challenges in traditional forecasting, such as uncertainty, short lead times for extreme weather events, and localized systems that affect smaller areas.

“We in PAGASA acknowledge gaps in traditional forecasting, including uncertainty, short lead times for extreme events like flash floods, and local-scale variability. These are difficult to predict because of the short duration and lead time,” Servando explained.

“Artificial intelligence offers a sharper edge by improving forecast reliability through data integration from satellites, radar, ground stations, and environmental sensors,” he added.

Despite these advancements, Servando emphasized that AI will augment—not replace—the expertise of human meteorologists who interpret complex weather systems and guide disaster preparedness efforts.

“AI does not replace meteorology or the expertise of our meteorologists,” he said. “It supports them by processing vast and complex data sets, generating timely and understandable guidance for decision-makers. Meaning, AI will not replace our jobs in the future.”

Servando said AI-driven forecasting systems are expected to enhance decision-making in critical areas such as evacuation timing, agricultural planning, and infrastructure protection.

However, he stressed that successful implementation requires more than just technology.

“We need robust infrastructure to provide adequate computing and storage capacity, ongoing capacity-building for our data users, and effective strategies to introduce AI technologies to the public,” he noted.

Project GABAY: AI for a Resilient Philippines

PAGASA showcased its AI4RP (Artificial Intelligence for a Resilient Philippines), also known as Project GABAY, during the event—a pioneering initiative that leverages AI to improve weather forecasting accuracy and make climate information more accessible to communities.

“This enhancement represents our commitment not only to improve accuracy but also to ensure that information reaches those who need it most—communities who must understand and act upon it,” Servando said.

“The project began in 2024 and aims to develop a high-resolution, AI-driven weather forecasting model tailored for the Philippines.”

The AI-based system can analyze historical weather data, recognize patterns, and generate forecasts faster and with greater precision. It is designed to self-learn and self-correct for improved reliability over time.

Under Project GABAY, PAGASA is testing AI models that increase horizontal resolution from three kilometers to two kilometers, extend forecast lead times from two days to 14 days, and cut computation time from three hours to just 15 minutes.

“The AI technique produces outputs faster and requires less computation,” Servando said. “This means more timely forecasts for local decision-makers.”

Still, PAGASA stressed that technology alone cannot save lives. The agency called for stronger collaboration among local governments, communities, and other stakeholders to ensure forecasts translate into real-world action.

“Technology alone is not enough,” Servando emphasized. “The success of our warning systems depends on partnerships, trust, and collective action. By combining scientific rigor with community engagement, AI can help us anticipate hazards, accelerate response, and protect lives before, during, and after disasters.”