How ready are we for the ‘Big One?’

The recent earthquakes in various parts of the country have rekindled discussions on disaster preparedness, particularly on the government’s readiness to provide financial, logistical and technical aid when a major quake hits the capital.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) reported last week that the possibility of the “Big One” striking Metro Manila increases as we move closer to 2058. While it is impossible to predict exactly when the earthquake will strike Metro Manila, Phivolcs Director Dr. Teresito C. Bacolcol said the estimates are based on the recurrence interval of 400 to 600 years.

The “Big One” refers to the magnitude-7.2 earthquake that is expected to cause catastrophic damage in Metro Manila. This seismic event is associated with significant tremors along the West Valley Fault, which runs through Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, Muntinlupa, and extends to the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal. The last major movement of this fault occurred in 1658. According to Phivolcs, the next movement could happen either earlier or later than 2058.

Nevertheless, a 7.2-magnitude earthquake is no longer a hypothetical scenario. Recently, a 7.4-magnitude quake struck offshore of Davao Oriental, followed by a 6.7-magnitude tremor in the same fault system, which came after the 6.9-magnitude quake that hit central Cebu at the end of September.

A few local government units have provided go-bags and first aid kits to their constituents and conducted disaster preparedness and response planning involving both proactive and reactive approaches. Since 2015, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) has held Metro Manila Shake Drills, engaging LGUs, schools and businesses to remind people to remember the three basic steps of duck, cover and hold.

Despite the drills over the past decade, many people are still concerned about how prepared we truly are for the Big One. The dense population in the National Capital Region and its scarce resources may soon challenge the effectiveness of the government’s disaster preparedness planning and response.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) has emphasized the importance of adhering to the National Building Code of 1977, which has been updated by the 2015 National Structure Code of the Philippines. Both policies ensure that all buildings can withstand the strongest earthquakes.

While many buildings may have been constructed before this latest update, which requires that structures should be able to withstand earthquakes of magnitudes-7.4 to 8, it is essential to inspect all buildings erected before 2015. This inspection will help ensure that these older structures can endure potential severe seismic activity.

In a previous corporate job, our company established several hubs to ensure that operations would continue smoothly. Employees were asked to indicate their places of residence to help the human resources department determine which hub each employee would be assigned to in the event of a major earthquake.

As a Poll Starter, preparedness should not just be a policy — -it should be a mindset. With tremors continuing to remind us of our vulnerability, we must shift from reactive panic to proactive resilience.

The Big One may be inevitable, but devastation doesn’t have to be. The future depends not on predicting the next quake, but on how ready we are when it comes.