Headline inflation further slowed to 0.9 percent in July, the lowest recorded since October 2019, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). This is well within the central bank’s forecast range of 0.5 to 1.3 percent for the month, signaling continued relief for consumers amid easing food and utility prices.

With July’s outturn, average inflation from January to July stood at 1.7 percent, significantly below the government’s official target of 2 to 4 percent for the year.

The downtrend was largely attributed to declines in food and non-food prices. Rice and vegetable prices continued to fall due to stable domestic supply, lower global prices, and direct government interventions. Meanwhile, inflation for non-food items also eased, driven by lower electricity, gas, and fuel costs, as well as price rollbacks in some petroleum products.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, headline inflation held steady at 0.1 percent in July, while core inflation – which strips out volatile food and energy items – edged slightly higher to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent in June.

Despite the uptick in core inflation, the BSP emphasized that underlying price pressures remain manageable.

Looking ahead, the central bank expects inflation to remain below target in 2025, before gradually returning to the 2-4 percent range in 2026 and 2027. However, it flagged emerging risks from evolving US trade policies and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could affect global supply chains and commodity prices.