Oil producers target output hike

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance are expected to further hike oil production in a meeting today, a move analysts say is aimed at regaining market share amid resilient crude prices.

The anticipated output increase by the group of eight oil-producing countries known as the “Voluntary Eight” (V8), would be the latest in a series of hikes that began in April.

In a bid to boost prices, the wider OPEC+ group, comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, in recent years had agreed to three different tranches of output cuts that amounted to almost 6 million barrels per day (bpd) in total.

Analysts expect the V8 group — namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — to agree on another output increase of 548,000 bpd for September, a target similar to the one approved in August.

According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, the likely “quota increase is largely priced in” already, with the price of Brent, the global benchmark for oil, expected to remain near its current level of around $70 per barrel after Sunday’s decision.

Since April, the V8 group has placed increased focus on regaining market share over price stability, a policy shift after years of enforcing production cuts to prop up prices.

Likely pause in output hikes

But it remains unclear which strategy the group intends to pursue after Sunday’s meeting.

According to Warren Patterson, an analyst at ING, the V8 nations will likely “take a pause in supply hikes after September.”

Crude prices have held up better than most analysts had predicted since the production increases began.

Experts say that is mainly due to traditionally high summer demand and significant geopolitical risk premiums being built into prices, particularly since the 12-day Iran-Israel war.