Philippine exports declined this June 2025 to $7.021 million from $7.314 billion in May 2025, however, 26.1 percent higher compared to the $5.568 billion in June 2024, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said on Wednesday.

“The country’s total export sales in June 2025 amounted to $7.02 billion, indicating an annual increment of 26.1 percent from the $5.57 billion total export sales in the same month of the previous year. In May 2025, the total export sales registered an annual increase of 15.5 percent, while an annual decrease of 17.3 percent was recorded in June 2024,” the PSA said.

The commodity group with the highest annual growth in the value of exports in June 2025 was electronic products, amounting to $897.38 million, followed by other mineral products with an ($ 238.98 million), and machinery and transport equipment with an annual spike of $127.66 million.

The United States has the biggest export value of $1.21 billion, or a share of 17.3 percent of the country’s total exports in June 2025, followed by Hong Kong ($1.07 billion, 15.2 percent); Japan ($974.80 million, 13.9 percent); China ($733.99 million, 10.5 percent); and Singapore at $311.96 million or 4.4 percent export value.

External trade

Further, the PSA said that last month’s total external trade in goods amounted to $18.00 billion, indicating an annual growth of 16.3 percent from the $15.47 billion total external trade in the same period of the previous year.

“In May 2025, the total external trade in goods recorded an annual increase of 5.0 percent, while an annual decrease of 11.1 percent was registered in June 2024,” the PSA reported.

Of the total external trade in June 2025, 61.0 percent were imported goods, while the remaining 39.0 percent were exported goods, said the PSA.

Annual increase in trade deficit

Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit (balance of trade in goods), or the gap between the value of exports and imports, in June 2025 stood at $-3.95 billion, a deficit with an annual diminution of 8.8 percent.

Last May 2025, the trade deficit posted an annual decrease of 23.2 percent, while an annual increase of 10.1 percent was recorded in June 2024.

Reacting to this, Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation’s chief economist, Michael Ricafort, said the country’s June 2025 trade deficit is among the best in nearly four years or since October 2021, as imports declined to among the lowest in more than three years or since February 2022.

“While exports increased to among 2.5-year highs or since November 2022; amid US President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs/reciprocal tariffs since April 2, 2025 and the 90-day pause since April 9, 2025 to a 10 percent baseline tariff (except for China’s 30 percent) led to some frontloading of exports in previous months to hedge before any further increase in US import tariffs; lower Fed rates by -1.00 since September 2024 and lower BSP rates by -1.25 since August 2025 that supported lower costs of financing/borrowings by importers and exporters,” he said.

Higher U.S. inflation, unemployment rates

Ricafort pointed out that Trump’s higher US import tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, trade wars, and other protectionist policies could lead to higher US inflation and unemployment rates, which could also slow down global trade, investments, employment, and overall world economic/GDP growth.

“In turn, it could slow down Philippine economic/GDP growth, thereby slowing down both exports and imports. Another risk factor that could slow down global trade (exports and imports) and overall global economic/GDP growth,” the economist said.