Fuel prices are poised for a split adjustment next week, with gasoline expected to roll back slightly and diesel projected to rise—potentially breaking a two-week streak of consecutive hikes across all fuel types.

Estimates from the Department of Energy (DOE) point to a rollback of around P0.10 per liter for gasoline, while diesel may climb by about P0.50 per liter.

“The wild ride in oil prices was largely driven by geopolitical events and uncertainty surrounding US trade policies,” DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rodela I. Romero said on Friday. 

She also noted an “unexpected decline in US crude inventories reinforcing signs of strong refinery activity.”

Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo Bellas gave a similar forecast, citing this week’s four-day average of the Mean of Platts Singapore and foreign exchange movement.

“For the week of July 28, 2025: diesel may increase by P0.40 to P0.60 per liter, while gasoline may roll back by P0.10 to P0.30 per liter,” Bellas said.

He said earlier supply fears following EU sanctions on Russia and possible US action had buoyed prices, but these have since eased amid expectations of minimal actual disruption.

“Sentiments have improved following a trade deal between the US and Japan, providing optimism on other trade negotiations,” Bellas added.

Diesel remains supported by “tighter regional availability and firm demand,” while gasoline has softened due to inventory builds and weakening demand in key markets.

Bellas, however, warned that Russia’s continued role as a major supplier means any sanctions, if enforced, could carry significant global repercussions.

This week, fuel retailers raised pump prices by P0.40 per liter for gasoline, P1.10 for diesel, and P0.70 for kerosene.