A geopolitical earthquake

A geopolitical earthquake | Daily Tribune

The Middle East is once again on the brink. Israel’s recent attack on Iranian military infrastructure —framed as a preemptive strike — has reignited global anxiety over a potential full-scale war between two of the region’s most powerful and ideologically opposed states.

While Israel claims its actions are rooted in self-defense and the need to neutralize what it deems existential threats from Iran’s nuclear ambitions and proxy networks, Tehran views the strike as blatant aggression and a violation of sovereignty. The stakes are high, and the fallout could be catastrophic — not just for the region, but for the entire world.

A war between Israel and Iran would not remain confined to their borders. Given their influence in the oil market and their strategic alliances, the ripples of this conflict would spread rapidly across continents.

Iran sits atop the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, while Israel — though not a major oil producer — lies near vital maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of the global oil supply passes.

If that passage is blocked or even threatened, oil prices could skyrocket overnight. Add to this the possibility of missile exchanges, cyberattacks, and disruptions to shipping and the recipe for an energy crisis is complete.

For the Philippines, a net importer of oil and heavily reliant on Middle Eastern supply chains, the implications would be dire. Fuel prices at the pump could double, triggering inflation across all sectors — food, transportation and electricity.

The Philippines’ economic recovery, which remains fragile in the wake of the pandemic and is burdened by national debt, could falter. Overseas Filipino workers in Israel and the Gulf States may be at risk, and repatriation could stretch the already limited resources of the government.

Moreover, remittances — which form a key pillar of the Philippine economy — might decline if hostilities disrupt jobs or close borders.

Politically, a broader war involving the United States — Israel’s staunchest ally — and Iran’s own allies (such as Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and potentially even Russia or China in a geopolitical balancing act) raises the specter of a global conflagration.”

A world war is not inevitable, but the danger lies in rapid escalation and miscalculation. The US could be drawn in under the pretext of protecting Israel or ensuring freedom of navigation. In turn, Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE — traditional rivals of Iran — may see opportunities or threats that compel them to act.

This could set off a domino effect of regional wars converging into something larger.

For Filipinos, the concern isn’t just about oil. It’s about being caught in the crossfire of a superpower showdown. The Philippines, with its historic ties to the United States and its vulnerable geographic position in the Indo-Pacific, could be pressured to take sides or open its bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

China, ever watchful of US military posturing, may respond by tightening its grip on the South China Sea — escalating regional tensions at our own doorstep.

In sum, a war between Israel and Iran is not a localized affair — it’s a geopolitical earthquake with aftershocks felt around the globe. For the Philippines, the impact would be severe, from economic disruptions to national security dilemmas.

This is not just a war between two countries; it could become everyone’s problem.