$3-B BoP deficit seen until March

The country posted a $3-billion deficit in global financial transactions, or balance of payments (BoP), in the first quarter of this year, reversing from a surplus of $238 million in the same quarter of 2024, after its payments for imports surpassed exports income.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the country’s trade deficit doubled to $4.2 billion from $2.1 billion.

BSP said this resulted from lower income, both from exported goods and services, while outbound travel spending rose.

Exports income stood at $14.7 billion as demand for minerals and coconut oil surged by 25 percent and 91 percent, respectively. Major markets included the US, Japan and Hong Kong.

However, import payments reached $31.5 billion, with the most significant receipts coming from passenger cars and animal and vegetable oils, which saw 26 percent and 98 percent growth, respectively. Primary import sources were China, Indonesia and Vietnam.

Receipts slowed

Meanwhile, receipts for export services decreased by 1.5 percent, partly due to a $755 million decline in transport income from $1.1 billion.

However, payments for import services rose by 1.7 percent, reflecting higher spending on travel, which increased to $3.2 billion from $3 billion.

These resulted in lower net receipts for the services trade of $3.3 billion, down from $3.7 billion.

While exports of agricultural goods improved, Chinabank said shipments of electronic parts might continue to moderate.

“The outlook for electronics exports may stay muted if tariff-related pressures persist, on top of the ongoing issue of inventory correction,” the bank said.

“Government initiatives to secure trade deals and improve export competitiveness should help in navigating through headwinds,” Chinabank said.

Chinabank said import payments might also sustain growth as more consumers gain extra funds after the BSP possibly declares a lower policy lending rate for banks.

“Looking ahead, however, the low inflation environment as well as further interest rate cuts should support demand for consumer goods,” the bank’s report said.