Anthonia Bayero does not need the latest central bank statistics to understand the Nigerian economy: it is all there in the “puff puff” she is frying on the pavement.

Two years ago, the crispy, doughnut hole-style snacks sold for 50 naira. Amid rampant inflation, she has kept the price the same but halved the size.

“All we pray for is for God to help us,” the 24-year-old told AFP at a market in the capital, Abuja, dough sizzling in the oil.

Her experience has been shared across Nigeria during the first two years of President Bola Tinubu’s tenure, marked by the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation as the government carries out reforms supported by many economists, but which in the short term have seen the naira currency plunge.

At the same time, as Tinubu rounds the halfway mark of his term this month, a resurgence of jihadist attacks in the northeast killed more than 100 civilians in April alone, while a governor in the region warned that the armed forces were losing ground.

“Oil production has improved, GDP growth has improved,” said Nnamdi Obasi, senior Nigeria adviser at the International Crisis Group, an NGO. “But the man in the street is looking at: has the cost of living improved? Does he feel more secure travelling from point A to point B?.”