Landscape-altering post-poll scenarios

The Philippines is nine days away from a political exercise the results of which could significantly alter the country’s political landscape.

For certain, the midterm elections will serve as a barometer of the political climate and public sentiment ahead of the presidential elections in 2028.

There are several scenarios that could result from the elections that would shape the country’s socio-political and economic landscape.

An optimistic scenario would be the elections would result in a clear majority for the incumbent party or coalition. This outcome would lead to stability and allow the current administration to pursue its policy agenda sans significant opposition.

Voters’ support for the current administration through votes cast for candidates aligned with the incumbent would indicate approval of his governance, fostering confidence among investors and international partners. This would facilitate economic growth, infrastructure development, and continued social programs, reinforcing the country’s trajectory of progress.

However, if a surge of opposition candidates gain significant seats in Congress and local governments, this would introduce a more turbulent political environment, with increased checks and balances on the executive.

This could lead to more vigorous debates on policy issues involving economic reforms, foreign relations, and other matters of policy emanating from Malacañang, While this may slow down certain legislative initiatives, it could also invigorate democratic processes by encouraging greater public participation and accountability.

However, a scenario more dire involves a highly fragmented Congress, which could translate to legislative gridlock making it difficult for the government to pass laws and implement reforms efficiently.

Political uncertainty might also intensify, affecting investor confidence and economic stability. In addition, regional or local conflicts could arise, especially if the election results are contested or if political clans maintain strong influence in certain areas.

The elections may also usher in new political leaders who will challenge the establishment. Emergent fresh faces could see a shifting of traditional power dynamics, potentially leading to a realignment of alliances within the political landscape.

This could enliven the democratic process but could also introduce unpredictability, especially if the new leaders lack experience or broad support.

Meanwhile, what could very well be a nightmare scenario for the Marcos administration is if a substantial number of senatorial candidates aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte are elected.

Should a pro-Duterte bloc dominate the Senate, it would not only strengthen her political influence but also have major implications for President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.’s administration, particularly if the Senate impeachment trial court trashes the high crimes charges filed against her and acquits her.

If Vice President Duterte’s allies win enough Senate seats, she would gain considerable legislative backing, allowing her to influence key national policies, block measures unfavorable to her political agenda, and advance her political ambitions, especially for the presidency in 2028.

Given the Senate’s role in the impeachment trial, a majority sympathetic to her could shield her from conviction regardless of the evidence presented. This would embolden her position and potentially weaken the authority of the President.

Failure to convict Duterte despite strong evidence to back the corruption charges she was slapped with could deepen public skepticism toward the impeachment process, reinforcing perceptions that Philippine politics is driven by loyalty rather than accountability.

An acquittal would solidify the Vice President’s political resilience and make her more than ready to face whoever is fielded by the administration in the 2028 presidential contest.

Meanwhile, the President, challenged by an uncooperative Senate and a vindicated Vice President, would see his options limited to a power-sharing arrangement with Duterte to avoid further instability, which is a remote possibility.

That he would escalate the political attacks against her is a more likely scenario, although in truth, the President would be risking a full-blown government crisis by doing so. But what he could attempt is a strengthening of his own coalition in local governments and the House of Representatives to counterbalance the Senate — if the latter is populated by a majority of pro-Duterte senators after May.

A Senate dominated by Sara Duterte’s allies would shift the balance of power in Philippine politics, potentially reducing President Marcos’s control over governance.

If the impeachment trial against her fails due to political maneuvering rather than merit, it could damage institutional credibility while strengthening Duterte’s leadership position in the opposition.

The resulting dynamic could either force Marcos to seek concession or trigger, potentially, deeper political conflict that would shape the nation’s direction in the years to come.

Ultimately, the outcome would hinge not just on legal proceedings but on the broader struggle for influence between two of the country’s most powerful political families.