Who has the momentum?

Early 2025 saw the Marcos-Duterte feud, a high-stakes bitter rivalry between two of the most powerful political dynasties, one from the North, the other the Southern part of the Philippines, polarizing and shaping the country’s political landscape ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections.

The latest Pulse Asia “Ulat ng Bayan” survey, conducted on 23–29 March and released on 15 April, showed that FPRRD’s arrest continues to have an impact on the political scene as we see Philip Salvador and Rodante Marcoleta inch up in the rankings.

Meanwhile, Camille Villar, although still within the hopeful 12-18 place range, has dropped out of the Magic 12. Francis Tolentino has all but disappeared from the winning range allowing Bam Aquino to move up. Imee Marcos is hovering in the 13 - 18 range followed by Kiko Pangilinan.

However, in the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey commissioned by think tank Stratbase conducted on 8 –13 April (before the Pulse Asia results were released), it appears that Duterte’s ICC arrest has taken a backseat in voter preference.

Lito Lapid jumped from 11th to 3rd–4th while Camille Villar re-entered the winning circle ranking at 9–10 demonstrating a late-campaign momentum driven by a clearer economic platform and maybe a boost following her family’s shift to the Duterte camp.

Duterte ally Bato de la Rosa dropped from 3rd spot to 6th, indicating a weaker national appeal outside Mindanao in the absence of FPRRD. Independent candidate Willie Revillame noticeably fell out of the top 12, likely due to the absence of a solid platform.

This close to the elections we foresee likely voter preferences come election day. Eight names are consistently in the top 12 in both the Pulse Asia and SWS surveys: Bong Go, Erwin Tulfo, Vicente Sotto III, Pia Cayetano, Bato dela Rosa, Ramon Revilla Jr., Lito Lapid and Ben Tulfo.

The remaining four slots will likely go to, among others, Abby Binay, Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquiao, Camille Villar, Imee Marcos, or Willie Revillame.

As a default, we can assume that Binay, Lacson, and Pacquiao are likely to get the 9th to 11th seats. Unless, in addition to VP Sara’s personal endorsement of Imee Marcos and Camille Villar, PDP Laban’s Rodante Marcoleta and Philip Salavador can break into the final winning 12 which will depend largely on the impact of VP Sara’s belated efforts to campaign for PRRD’s Senate slate.

Meanwhile, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan could still rally residual Liberal Party support to cut through the battle between the Marcos and Duterte camps.

The March 2025 Pulse Asia survey results which revealed significant shifts in approval and trust ratings for the top four government officials were released on April 15th. Notable though, is how the sharp decline in the approval and trust ratings of the President and the Speaker of the House of Representatives continued to gain traction and subjected to inordinate amplification via social media and news networks — perhaps a deliberate effort to capitalize on the high ratings of VP Sara to boost her campaign efforts to get more Duterte allies to win Senate seats and secure her acquittal in the impeachment trial.

Will these belated efforts be enough to impact the rankings in the final surveys, and ultimately, to thwart Alyansa’s goal to sweep the senate race? Or will Alyansa candidates continue to dominate despite PBBM’s low approval and trust ratings?