Fuel prices are expected to see mixed adjustments next week, with slight increases likely for gasoline and diesel, while kerosene prices may remain flat or change marginally, the Department of Energy (DOE) said Friday.

DOE-Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rodela Romero said that based on current trading, gasoline prices could rise by P0.30 to P0.70 per liter, while diesel could go up by P0.20 to P0.60 per liter. Kerosene prices may either stay the same or move by plus or minus P0.20 per liter.

Romero attributed the projected changes to developments in the international oil market.

“Oil prices dipped slightly as worries about the impact of the trade war on global growth outweighed concern about a hit to supply from threats by the US to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude,” she said.

She noted that US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the European Union, China, and South Korea, has heightened fears of a global trade war, which could weaken crude demand.

Romero also cited China’s expected refinery output decline in March and April due to the peak maintenance season as a factor contributing to market volatility.

Separately, Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas said price movements are also pointing to moderate increases.

Bellas said gasoline prices may rise by P0.50 to P0.70 per liter, while diesel may increase by P0.40 to P0.60 per liter.

“Prices are on track to increase due to worries that the global oil supply could be constrained if stricter sanctions and secondary tariffs on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are imposed,” he said.

He added that supply concerns are being driven by refinery outages in Russia and Kazakhstan’s decision to cut oil output.

However, Bellas noted that prices have started to ease as fears over new US tariffs triggering a global trade war could weaken economic growth and reduce crude demand.

He said expectations of rising supply — after OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production in May — along with a significant buildup in US crude inventories, have contributed to a more bearish market outlook.

This week, fuel retailers raised gasoline prices by P1.40 per liter, and diesel and kerosene prices by P1.20 per liter.

From the start of the year to March 25, gasoline and diesel have recorded a total net increase of P3.25 per liter, while kerosene has registered a net decrease of P0.30 per liter.