It ain’t over ‘til it’s over

The recent Social Weather Stations survey on the 2025 Senate race provided an interesting snapshot of voter preferences which a poll analyst told Daily Tribune presents an interesting battle in a competitive field.

While those in the top tier of the Magic 12 have held their positions since February 2025, with Lito Lapid’s drop from 3rd to 5th being the exception, familiarity and media exposure and backing by an established political party rather than policy debates will be crucial.

Stability in the rankings indicates entrenched voter preference driven by party affiliations with the leading parties PDP Laban, Lakas and NPC dominating the top ranks, reflecting the influence of a political machinery.

However, independents’ good performance suggests that personal popularity can rival party support.

Candidates like Kiko Pangilinan, LP (24 percent), Bam Aquino, KNP (21 percent), and Imee Marcos, NP (19 percent) trail the top 12 but remain within striking distance. Pangilinan and Aquino, associated with the Liberal Party’s reformist wing, may struggle against the populist wave, while Marcos benefits from her family’s enduring influence.

Lower-tier candidates like Phillip Salvador, Benhur Abalos, Gringo Honasan, Francis Tolentino and Colonel Bosita face an uphill battle, with percentages suggesting limited national appeal or campaign momentum.

The analyst said narrow gaps between candidates indicate a tight race where voter turnout and last-minute campaigning could shift outcomes.

Candidates outside the top 12 could climb with effective strategies, while those at the bottom of the Magic 12 risk slipping down.