Overall inflation in February decelerated to 2.1 percent from 2.9 percent in January due to cheaper food, utilities and transport.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority pointed to last month’s level as the lowest since October 2024.

This was also slightly lower than the 2.2 percent minimum forecast of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

National statistics showed food prices declining by 2.6 percent from an expansion of 3.8 percent, while prices of housing and utilities fell to 1.6 percent from 2.2 percent. Transport prices grew slower by 0.2 percent from 1.1 percent.

However, prices of information and communications services slightly rose by 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent.

Specifically, vegetable prices dropped to 7.1 percent from 21.1 percent, while prices of cereals including rice further slid downward to -3.1 percent from -1.1 percent.

Rice prices down 5%

Deputy National Statistician Divina Gracia Del Prado said rice prices decreased by five percent after the National Food Authority announced the release of rice stock of at least 25,000 metric tons last month.

“I think this shows a great impact on food prices from the government’s food security emergency measure,” she said.

“We saw a 5 percent adjustment due to cheaper rice at Kadiwa stores, and I think the government also plans to distribute Kadiwa rice at malls,” Del Prado continued.

Pork prices, however, rose to 12.1 percent from 8.4 percent, while poultry prices increased to 10.8 percent from 8.4 percent.

Del Prado said liempo drove up overall pork prices as this specific part of the pig reached P496 per kilo in Metro Manila.

She attributed the growth in pork prices partly to African Swine Fever which limited the food item’s supply.

Lower Asian swine flu cases

However, the Department of Agriculture (DA) is reporting that farmers were already seeing lower ASF cases at 133 in 34 cities as of January, from 225 barangays in December 2024.

“The DA-Bureau of Animal Industry was advised to speed up the collection of post-vaccination results from 28 hog farms and quickly submit the analysis to the Food and Drug Administration. This will help accelerate product registration for the commercial use of the African swine fever vaccine,” the National Economic and Development Authority said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Del Prado said the supply of poultry products has slowed due to bird flu.

Low operating costs

Electricity prices offset growth in certain food items as power rates declined to -0.1 percent from 0.2 percent.

NEDA attributed this to a stable power supply after the government enabled lower operating costs for independent power producers operating under Build-Operate-Transfer contracts with government-owned or controlled corporations.

President Marcos signed Executive Order 83 last month to grant power producers real property tax relief.

Transport prices also fell to -0.2 percent from 1.1 percent, reflecting price decreases in gasoline to -4.7 percent from 0.8 percent and diesel to -3.4 from 1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, water prices decreased to 5.8 percent from 6.2 percent and housing rental to 1.6 percent from two percent.

Prices manageable

HSBC economist Aris Dacanay projects overall inflation to remain manageable or within the BSP target of 2 to 4 percent.

“Retail rice prices still have room to stabilize even further while China potentially shifting its exports from the US to, say, ASEAN, in response to the US tariffs may lead to import competition in the region and, thus, a disinflationary impulse in core goods,” he said.

Standard Chartered, meanwhile, expects full-year overall inflation to hit an average of 3.1 percent, lower than the 3.2 percent inflation rate last year.