The latest Social Weather Survey is out, and — if the trend continues — it doesn’t look too good for the opposition, both of the Yellow and the Duterte variety.

At the top is (still) administration stalwart Erwin Tulfo. Following are former Senate President Tito Sotto, a veteran lawmaker who’s been in the legislature since the Malolos Constitution (I exaggerate, obviously). Then come incumbents Lito Lapid and Bong Go, followed by Ping Lacson, Ben Tulfo, Pia Cayetano, Manny Pacquiao, Abby Binay, Bato dela Rosa and Bong Revilla. After them comes Willie Revillame (a half-cousin to Bong. I jest, of course. Revilla, Revillame, get it?), and bringing up the rear is Mr. DJ Kiko Pangilinan.

Elections are still several months away, but barring drastic changes, then the only solid Duterte loyalists likely to win are Go and Dela Rosa. Sotto has always adopted an independent stance, but will — when push comes to shove — side with the party in power, especially if he tries to retake his old Senate presidency.

The same goes for Ping, who is even more “neither here nor there,” a survival strategy that has worked quite well for him. Erwin is practically the alter ego of Speaker Romualdez and signed, sealed and delivered for the administration; his brother Ben is supposed to be an “independent” but I’ll bet my butt he will go where his brother does.

And knowing how the term “independent” means absolutely nothing in Philippine politics, Ben will be malleable, together with Revilla, Cayetano and Binay. Pacquiao and Lapid are big ciphers, whom the electorate quickly forget are in the Senate right after the elections.

Pangilinan is definitely an out-and-out Dilawan (in the good and bad definition of the term), but has been seen recently kowtowing to the President he once called a big thief. Revillame is the unknown factor, and I am hopeful that he would pull a surprise, although my optimism is more guarded than Fort Knox.

If former President Duterte’s PDP Laban slate is facing near camoteng cajoy status in the surveys, the bulk of the blame must go to those in his party who selected those candidates. Already faced with huge disadvantages owing to the fact that many of those arrayed against them have the high ground when it comes to money and power, PDP Laban had to choose candidates which have very little chance of political success.

Don’t get me wrong: I know many of them, and I am convinced they would make excellent elder statesmen. But the distance between making for a good Senator and winning a Senate seat is the gap between Earth and Galaxy GNZ-11: 32 billion light years.

Raul Lambino I’ve known for more than two decades; he’s an excellent lawyer, an efficient administrator and an idealist. Jimmy Bondoc I only got to meet recently, but he strikes me as a brilliant lawyer and someone with a vision. These two are definitely better than some in the winning circle. But — and I’m really sorry about this — Philip Salvador? And who the heck is Hinlo, so the people ask.

President Duterte confidently declaring lately that they will win, is so much whistling in the dark. The former Chief Executive remains widely popular, to be sure, but even at his peak, his popularity was never transferrable (witness running mate Allan Peter’s miserable showing). Coupled with lack of name recognition and sufficient funds, the Alamo and Custer’s Last Stand come to mind.

I feel sorry for them. As a politician’s son, I know how it is to campaign: walking tens of kilometers in the heat of the sun, shaking every hand extended to you, and even those reluctant to shake your hand, with your feet calloused and blistered in the end. Thus, as the campaign concludes, many of those with marginal candidacies will not only be deprived of the thrill of victory, but will long suffer the agony of the feet.