Duterte's bid for Davao mayor seen as strategic move ahead of 2028 elections

The planned comeback of former president Rodrigo Duterte as Davao City mayor is not just an ordinary bid but more of a test in preparation for the 2028 presidential elections, a political expert said Thursday. 

Duterte launched his intention to reclaim his past position on Monday, just two days before the deadline for filing the certificate of candidacy. His son, incumbent Mayor Sebastian Duterte, will be his running mate.

The senior Duterte will be up against his ex-Cabinet secretary Karlo Nograles in the mayoral race.

Political analyst Froilan Calilung, a professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said the Duterte family, which has ruled Davao for over three decades, is seeking to tighten its grip on the city by positioning its patriarch for the top local post.

Calilung added that this is mainly because a loss in their bailiwick could affect their potential ambition for the 2028 national election.

“If the Nograles will actually be able to snatch Davao away from the Dutertes, then it will give the idea of the weakening control of the Dutertes in their own bailiwick,” Calilung said in an interview.

“This may translate into a seemingly weaker perception of the electorate of the voting public on a national level and this is something that the Dutertes would not want to actually have,” he added. 

Davao is among the most vote-rich cities in the country, alongside Quezon City and Manila. 

The former president’s decision to run for mayor is seen as a desperate effort to preserve his family’s faltering political dynasty following strained relations with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., which turned former allies into critics. 

The Dutertes previously criticized the Marcos administration for its lack of a comprehensive flood control master plan to quell Davao City's flooding issues. 

Marcos’ allies, however, jumped to his defense, saying the Dutertes, who governed Davao City for over three decades, were the ones to blame. 

The recent issue on the alleged misuse of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, on her office’s multi-million confidential funds, are among the factors that contributed to the waning influence of their family.

Sara, who has been at odds with the House of Representatives leadership, speaker Martin Romualdez, who is Marcos' cousin, is perceived as a frontrunner for the 2028 national elections.

The VP, currently at the center of a congressional probe over allegations of fund mismanagement, previously indicated she would not rule out the possibility of running in the next presidential elections.

She vowed to announce her political ambitions in the "fourth quarter of 2026."  

Lagging behind 

Meanwhile, Nograles, a three-term congressman, lamented that he is puzzled as to why Davao, a progressive city, is lagging behind its neighbors when it had “the means, the capacity, and the money” to digitalization programs, as well as offer more benefits to senior citizens.

According to the mayoral hopeful, these initiatives have been implemented in other cities for years now.

“It’s not that Davao doesn’t have the money for it. It does. and I don’t understand why we cannot maximize all of these for the benefit of our people in Davao City,” Nograles said in an interview on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, he noted that his constituents would expect a new leadership that would finally address the unresolved flooding problem that has plagued the city for years. 

Nograles will run as an independent candidate, while his younger sister, incumbent PBA Rep. Margarita Nograles, will run against Duterte’s eldest son, Davao City Paolo Duterte, who is seeking reelection. 

Nograles’ decision to run for mayor revived the long and bitter Duterte-Nograles rivalry dating back to 1992, when Nograles’ father, the late Speaker Prospero Nograles, attempted to unseat Duterte in that election. 

The first loss of the senior Nograles was later followed by a series of poll defeats against the Dutertes. 

It was only in 2015 that their decade-old feud come to an end, after the Nograles clan endorsed Duterte in the 2016 presidential polls, which the latter won. 

As a result of the reconciliation, Duterte appointed the younger Nograles to various posts during his presidency.