Looking at bigger picture, we’re okay

Looking at bigger picture, we’re okay | Daily Tribune

Expectedly, those not exactly enamored of the Marcos government would be among those who might take pleasure in reports that foreign investment pledges approved by local investment promotion agencies (IPAs) have slumped in the first quarter.

The value of approved investment commitments from foreign business was down to P148 billion in the period covering January to March 2024 from P408.22 billion during the same period last year, per first quarter data revealed by the Philippine Statistics Authority.

That’s a hefty 63.4 percent less than the P394.45 billion in the fourth quarter last year and the lowest since Q3 2023’s P27.3 billion — pledges that have been registered with the Board of Investments, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, Philippine Economic Zone Authority, Clark Development Corp., and Cagayan Economic Zone Authority.

No foreign investment approvals were likewise recorded for this year’s first quarter by IPAs including Clark International Airport Corp., John Hay Management Corp., Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority, Bases Conversion and Development Authority, Bataan Freeport Area, Zamboanga City Special Economic Zone, and Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority.

What’s happening here? It’s a whole gamut of causes, from the cautiousness of foreign businesses before plunking down money in developing markets like the Philippines in a challenging global economy to economic headwinds including inflationary pressures and the high cost of borrowing in the country, as well as the paucity of quality investment proposals.

Investment research analysts also explain that the foreign investment values of quite sizeable projects approved in 2023 were huge, making this year’s first-quarter figures seem lower in comparison.

Further, economists are saying that the Q1 reduction in foreign investment approvals could be connected to the concretization of investment pledges from the surge of pledges earlier made when Marcos Jr. began his presidency.

In other words, they say the FDI situation has improved with investment pledges now starting to be converted into actual foreign direct investment (cash) flows, as evinced by current data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas indicating a 29.3-percent hike in FDIs to $1.364 billion in February, the highest level in over a year.

For its part, the Board of Investments over the weekend gave actual gross figures in terms of investments which the agency underscored included amounts realized particularly from the President’s foreign trips where he urged foreign business to invest in the country.

Some businessmen, including executives of companies with foreign principals, likewise do not seem too overly perturbed by the drop in foreign investment approvals.

One Filipino businessman, who heads the country office of a transnational firm, says the “bit of a pause in actual FDIs streaming in is owing to the ongoing wrangling between the Marcoses and the Dutertes which has probably spooked certain foreign investors. Still, local conglomerates and tycoons are going full blast on their capex initiatives. From where I’m perched, I can see that domestic investment is up and bullish.”

For his part, a finance executive who serves as a chief operating consultant to a foreign investment bank covering the Asia Pacific region said he is “not too concerned about this periodic statistic; it is true that there is a slowdown in FDI into emerging markets and the current high interest and volatile geopolitical situation is indeed adding to the pause.”

However, he stressed, “What I must say, though, is that the business climate and optimism today is much, much better than in the past administration. For us, that is far more important than short-term hiccups concerning FDIs.”

He added, “Economic growth is also much better now, not like in the past regime when all the FDI announcements were all empty, dominated by the supposed grand pledges from the Chinese that never really happened. If there is a real fight with the Chinese lackey — you know who that is — most of the business community here will align with PBBM (President Bongbong Marcos), and I suspect so too will most of the most pinkish of pinklawans.”

In the face of all that then, would it be correct to say that those wishing the current dispensation ill and are jumping up and down like chimpanzees over this temporary first-quarter slump in foreign investment approvals might, perhaps, be delusional?