The latest report by the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts the Philippines to have a kicked-up rice volume import of 4.1 million metric tons, still making it the top rice importer worldwide.

The recent estimation is higher than the Foreign Agricultural Service’s previous projection of 3.9 million MT of rice in February.

It cited in its March 2024 report that the country’s volume increment was due to a “smaller crop” harvest, which can be attributed to a result caused by El Niño.

Indonesia incurred the highest volume increase, from the previous 2.9 million MT forecast in February to 3.5 million MT as of writing, which is attributed to “import quota raised.”

Vietnam, which is the leading rice exporter to the Philippines, is also seen to have a slight rise in its rice imports, from 1.4 million MT last month to now 1.6 million MT, as a reason for having “more paddy rice imports from Cambodia.”

Meanwhile, Cambodia, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam posed a climb in their projected volumes of rice exports.

For Vietnam, its previous estimations stood at 7.6 million MT, jumping to 7.8 million MT now because of “strong demand from the Philippines.”

The two Southeast Asian countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Rice Trade Cooperation during the state visit of President Ferdinand '’Bongbong'’ Marcos Jr. to Hanoi in January. Under the deal, Vietnam will supply the country with 1.5 million to 2 million MT of white rice per year at an affordable price.

In response to recent estimations, the Department of Agriculture spokesman, Asec. Arnel de Mesa said that the USDA’s projections ‘don't normally happen.’

“According to our data from the Bureau of Customs (BOC), including the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI), our importation was at 3.6 million MT because our local harvest was quite high [and] also a record harvest last year at 20.06 million MT in rice form,” he added.

Over P1.2 billion worth of agriculture damage and losses have been estimated as the latest production loss in the Philippines due to the onslaught of El Niño, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.