The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration issued a La Niña watch alert on Thursday as the phenomenon is seen to pre-develop in the coming months.

PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Analiza Solis said the criteria for La Niña Watch under the bureau’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation Alert System were satisfied.

“Ngayon po ay na-satisfy yung established criteria ng PAGASA ENSO Alert System na kung saan, La Niña Watch is being issued as of today because there is still a probability of more than 55 percent in the next six months. That is why, under the PAGASA ENSO alert system, kahit meron pa tayong strong El Niño at nararamdaman ang impact nito ay we need to issue La Niña watch (Today, the established criteria of the PAGASA ENSO Alert System have been satisfied, and La Niña Watch is being issued as of today because there is still a probability of more than 55 percent in the next six months. That is why under the PAGASA ENSO alert system, even though we still have a strong El Niño and feel its impact, we need to issue a La Niña watch),” Solis said in a press conference.

Under the PAGASA ENSO alert and warning system, four stages are being classified: La Niña watch, La Niña alert, La Niña advisory, and La Niña final advisory.

Solis, however, noted that the issuance of the La Niña watch doesn't guarantee the occurrence of the phenomenon.

“Ano ba yung magiging implication during the La Niña watch? So titingnan natin dahil pre-historically, kapag meron ng pre-developing La Niña, stil below normal rainfall condition ang possible nating mararamdaman lalong-lalo na during the onset of rainy season or habagat season (What will be the implication during the La Niña watch? So we will look at it because pre-historically, when there is a pre-developing La Niña, below-normal rainfall conditions are what we can feel, especially during the onset of rainy season or monsoon season),” she explained.

She added: “Even though we issue La Niña watch, nandiyan pa rin dapat yung concentration natin sa strong El Niño impacts (Even though we issue La Niña watch, our concentration should still be there on the strong El Niño impacts),” she added, stressing that the impact of pre-developing La Niña might be below normal rainfall conditions in general.

“Hindi ibig sabihin, hindi pa nating pag-uusapan dito kung ano yung posibleng impact na posible na gagawin ng La Niña dahil malayo pa yun and still uncertain pa rin (This does not mean that we will not talk about the possible impact of La Niña because it is still far and uncertain).”

El Niño’s delayed impact

The weather state bureau PAGASA said that despite the strong El Niño expected to weaken this March, the weather phenomenon's devastation doesn't end there, as its impact is expected to continue.

Solis cited the World Meteorological Organization's Tuesday report, which states that: “It is now gradually weakening but it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months, fuelling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities. Above normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.”

“This is also consistent dun sa two weeks ago na pinapalabas natin that strong and mature El Niño since January [to] February, then hanggang March mag-start na siyang mag-weaken, but then yung impact ng tindi ng El Niño, March, April, May natin siya mararanasan (This is also consistent with two weeks ago when we released that strong and mature El Niño since January [to] February, then until March he will start to weaken, but then the impact of the intense El Niño, March, April, May, we can experience it).”

Based on the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council's latest report, the Philippine agriculture sector has now suffered over P1 billion worth of damage and losses brought on by the onslaught of El Niño.