PAGASA warns of delayed impact of strong El Niño in coming days

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration said on Friday that despite strong El Niño expected to weaken this March, the weather phenomenon devastation doesn't end there, as its delayed impact is expected to be felt in the coming days and months.

“Na-reach na natin yung strong and mature El Niño na kung saan after nito, it will start to weaken or decay,” said PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Analiza Solis in a radio interview.

(We have reached the strong and mature El Niño, and after this, it will start to weaken or decay.)

“Bagamat nag-weaken na yung El Niño, dun pa lang natin mararanasan yung matinding impact nito sa ating bansa dahil may tinatawag itong land effect, so yung land impact niya ngayon pa lang nating mararanasan,” she continued.

(Although El Niño has weakened, we will still experience its severe impact in our country because it has what is called a land effect, so we will only experience its land impact now.)

She said that the delayed impact is due to changes in the ocean atmosphere of the tropical Pacific, where El Niño occurs.

“It would take time para magkaaroon ng pagbabago doon sa ocean atmosphere dahil ang sabi nga natin, ang El Niño ay nagaganap dun sa tropical Pacific, so ang impact niyan ay yung magiging reaction ng ocean dun sa ating atmosphere. Doon pa lang natin malalaman kung gaano katindi yung magiging epekto nito sa ating bansa, Solis explained.

(It would take time for there to be a change in the ocean atmosphere because, as we said, El Niño takes place in the tropical Pacific, so the impact of that will be the reaction of the ocean in our atmosphere. Only then will we know how strong its impact will be on our country.)

Based on the latest monitoring of the weather state bureau on 27 February, El Niño is still estimated to persist until May.

“Maaari by end of April ay nakikita natin…dahil yung mga areas na already experiencing dry conditions at dry spell ngayon and then yung mga may meteorological conditions ngayon, sila yung magsasama-sama na magtutuloy-tuloy by the end of April na talagang may significant reduction sa tubig ulan nila sa susunod na mga araw at buwan.”

(Maybe by the end of April we can see... because the areas that are already experiencing dry conditions and dry sell now, and then those that have meteorological conditions now will come together and continue by the end of April that really have a significant reduction in their rainwater in the next days and months.)

Furthermore, besides Western Visayas and Mimaropa, which are the areas most affected by El Niño, Solis noted that significant dry spells or drought conditions can also be experienced in different parts of the country, including Calabarozon and Mindanao, by the end of April.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported on Thursday that the value loss of the Philippine agriculture sector affected by the onslaught of El Niño is now more than P942 million.

Western Visayas, remains the hardest hit area, registering a production loss amounting to P564,056,192.48, followed by Mimaropa with an estimated P319,755,957.97 in agri-damage.

Thus, the Department of Agriculture assured the affected population that government assistance would be extended to them, extending financial aid from the Agricultural Credit Policy Council, Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, and Quick Response Fund.