The soaring cost of rice in the Philippines has spawned serious debate regarding food security and the country’s reliance on imported rice. While the situation is unquestionably complex and multifaceted, President Marcos Jr.’s recent statement highlights an often-overlooked aspect: The enormous impact of external influences on local food costs.

In the latest vlog of the social media-savvy President, he emphasized that rising rice prices are not exclusive to the Philippines, but are felt by most countries that import the grain.

He pointed out that major rice exporters, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are increasing prices, citing variables that cross national borders and which have a significant impact on the local rice market.

Mr. Marcos identified the global oil price increase as a major factor in this issue. He explained that elevated oil prices raise the cost of vital agricultural inputs.

“When oil prices rise, so do urea, irrigation costs, everything needs adjustments. So, we are really affected by all these external shocks,” said Mr. Marcos, who had vowed to eventually bring the price of rice down to P20 per kilo.

“We are really affected by all these external shocks. We are doing everything to make our production sufficient so that we no longer need to import, reducing the inputs needed for our farmers, and hopefully we can at least stabilize the price of rice,” he added.

The domino effect results in changes throughout the agricultural value chain, eventually leading to greater production costs and, as a result, price increases for consumers.

The Philippines’ strong reliance on rice imports exacerbates the problem. As the world’s leading rice importer in 2023 (38 million metric tons), the Philippines is the country most vulnerable to swings in global rice prices.

This reliance on foreign sources exposes the Philippines to price shocks and vulnerabilities that are beyond its immediate control since the three major meals of the day for most Filipinos would have rice.

As a result, it is critical to recognize that establishing and maintaining rice security in the Philippines necessitates a multidimensional approach beyond immediate price control measures. Price caps simply do not work.

Acknowledging the public’s genuine concerns, Mr. Marcos said officials must focus on long-term plans that reduce reliance on rice imports by increasing domestic production.

Vietnam has effectively transitioned from a rice importer to a major exporter by investing in agricultural research and development.

The country aggressively promotes rice breeding innovations, with the goal of developing disease-resistant, high-yielding varieties.

Furthermore, Vietnam puts a premium on infrastructure development, ensuring effective irrigation systems and transportation networks to reduce post-harvest losses and improve distribution.

Thailand’s success story, on the other hand, is dependent on government assistance measures for farmers, including subsidized fertilizer, guaranteed minimum prices, and low-interest loans that reduce production costs and facilitate access to needed resources.

Furthermore, Thailand implements substantial agricultural extension programs, which provide farmers with critical knowledge and skills for increased output.

Based on the experiences of other rice-exporting countries, the Philippines can chart a road to rice sufficiency by investing in agricultural research and development and prioritizing research on high-yielding, climate-resilient varieties.

Combined with advances in farming techniques and soil management, these measures have the potential to significantly increase domestic rice production through infrastructure development.

President Marcos Jr.’s emphasis on external variables impacting rice prices serves as a timely reminder of the complexity and interconnectedness of global agricultural systems.

While immediate action may be required to address current challenges, true rice security in the Philippines necessitates a long-term vision and strategic investment in increasing domestic rice production, diversifying agricultural practices, and improving the efficiency of the agricultural value chain.

The country must draw inspiration from successful rice-exporting countries and implement evidence-based strategies that after all were started in the Philippines with its hosting of the International Rice Research Institute decades back.

Doing that, the country can gradually work towards rice sufficiency, ensuring a stable food supply for its citizens and mitigating the impact of external shocks on its domestic rice market.

The question is: Would that happen during the administration of President Marcos, or would his P20-per-kilo rice remain only an aspiration?