FUNAFUTI (AFP) — Tuvalu’s pro-Taiwan prime minister has lost his parliamentary seat, according to election results released Saturday, fueling speculation the microstate may be poised to switch diplomatic recognition to Beijing.

Results showed that Kausea Natano, who has backed long-standing relations with Taipei, failed to win one of two seats up for grabs on the main atoll of Funafuti.

Just 12 nations around the world still formally recognize Taiwan, after Nauru abruptly severed diplomatic ties in favor of China earlier this month.

Some Pacific watchers have questioned whether Beijing could persuade Tuvalu to also make the switch.

Natano’s finance minister, Seve Paeniu, has floated the idea of reviewing Taiwan ties.

He won his election race uncontested and is expected to try to chase the island country’s top job.

There are only a little over 6,000 registered voters in the country of around 11,500 people and votes are still coming in from some islands.

With no formal political parties, the process of members of parliament selecting a prime minister and potentially changing government policies could be slow.

Taiwan’s ambassador to Tuvalu Andrew Lin dismissed the idea of a potential switch, recently telling Agence France-Presse the two allies enjoyed a “very long-term friendship” that would endure beyond the election.

But China has been methodically poaching Taiwan’s Pacific allies, convincing Solomon Islands and Kiribati to switch recognition in 2019 before Nauru did the same.

China claims democratic, self-ruled Taiwan as part of its territory and has vowed to one day seize it, by force if necessary.

Security implications

Tuvalu’s looming leadership change may also throw into doubt a recent treaty with Australia, which saw Canberra offer refuge to Tuvaluans threatened by climate change.

The United Nations says Tuvalu is “extremely vulnerable” to the effects of climate change, with most of its landmass less than five meters above sea level.

Most of it is predicted to be underwater — at least some of the time — by 2100.

Around 40 percent of the main atoll Funafuti already gets submerged during periodic “king” tides that wash away taro and cassava which were the islands’ staple crops.

Two of the atolls represented on its flag of 11 stars have already disappeared.

The treaty with Australia provided funding for mitigation efforts. But it also had a geopolitical edge, and has been questioned by senior Tuvalu political figures.

The treaty committed Australia to defending Tuvalu in the face of natural disasters, health pandemics and “military aggression.”

It also offered Australia a say in any defense pacts Tuvalu signs with other countries — effectively preventing a security deal with China.

Australia had been shocked when the neighboring Solomon Islands secretly signed a defence pact with Beijing that would allow the deployment of Chinese forces on the islands.

Since the signing of that agreement, uniformed Chinese police officers have become a regular sight in Solomon Islands.