Beijing’s fury over President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s conveying of congratulations to Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party presidential bet Lai Ching Te and his running mate, former Taiwanese ambassador to the US Hsiao Bi-Khim, on their victory in the recently held elections in Taiwan borders on the absurd.

No matter that the President, through the Department of Foreign Affairs, reaffirmed the country’s adherence to the “One China Policy” and stressed that his congratulatory remarks were for Taiwan’s successful conduct of elections and, in particular, in appreciation of its hosting of Filipino OFWs.

All that flew in the face of the People’s Republic of China was incensed that despite massive efforts to influence the elections through propaganda and outright disinformation, DPP’s Lai, whom Beijing openly despises and calls a “complete troublemaker,” won over Beijing’s apparent choices, particularly Kuomintang’s mild-mannered Hou You-yi who, while rejecting Communist China’s “one country, two systems” model, nonetheless advocates for opening a dialogue and increasing economic links with Beijing.

Understandably, President Marcos’ clarification of his sentiments over Lai’s victory was waved away by Beijing, but did it warrant the arrogance displayed by the Chinese Communist Party’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning, who downright insulted him by warning that the country should “not play with fire,” and for the Philippine President to “read more books to understand the ins and outs of the Taiwan issue properly…?”

Ultimately, the core of Beijing’s disappointment with President Marcos is the latter’s pivot from the path his predecessor took, who had leaned towards China while assuming a hostile attitude towards the US.

Meanwhile, US President Biden, when asked to react to Taiwanese voters’ rebuff of China by giving Taiwan’s ruling party — now under President-elect Lai — a third term in power, made it clear that the US does not support Taiwan’s formal declaration of independence.

Biden’s statement is to be expected because the US, since 1979, had switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. However, it continues to have relations unofficially with the democratically-governed island, remaining, in fact, its most significant arms supplier.

For his part, Lai said, “There is no need to declare independence because Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country,” in an apparent reference to the Republic of China that revolutionaries in southern China established after conquering the imperial system under the Qing dynasty. In 1949, ROC leaders relocated to Taiwan after losing to the Chinese Communist Party under Mao Zedong in a civil war in mainland China.

Lai ran under a vow to maintain the status quo among Taiwan’s 23 million people “who have never been ruled by Beijing nor have ever been citizens of the PRC.”

That historical fact is recognized by the Philippine president who provoked the ire of Communist China when he lauded Lai as president-elect of — for all intents and purposes — a free “sovereign and independent” country intent on defying imperial Beijing who, like its ridiculously fantastic 10-dash line claim over virtually the entire South China Sea, likewise asserts ownership of the island of Taiwan.

Not a few analysts say the results of the elections in Taiwan will set the tone for geopolitics this year. But there continue to be many more contingent factors that come into play and will critically determine the way things unfold in that part of the world.

For instance, one crucial event to watch would be the results of the US elections in November. Biden’s election would most likely mean a status quo in America’s support for Taiwan’s security vis-à-vis tensions between the archipelago and China.

But can anyone guess what Trump will do if he emerges as the victor in the polls and is restored as supreme commander-in-chief of the US armed forces?