As impending El Niño looms, all eyes are on Central Luzon

SAN FERNANDO, Pampanga — With the impending El Niño phenomenon looming, the whole country is now focusing on the agricultural powerhouse that is Central Luzon.

Touted as the "Rice Granary of the Philippines", the Central Plains of Luzon, or Central Luzon for short, produces one-third of the country's rice. The region has been known for producing the most delicious rice variety in the country. And with El Niño threatening the water supply for the rice farms in Central Luzon, the government is currently doing everything it can to ensure that they have ample water supply for the region.

On 11 December, DAILY TRIBUNE reported that the National Irrigation Administration – Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation Systems revealed that the Pantabangan Dam can only support 95,400 hectares of farmland this coming dry season. This is a significant decrease in the 147,000 hectares target that the NIA aims to supply water.

The Pantabangan Dam cannot supply water to the 50,400 hectares of farmlands in Nueva Ecija once the El Niño phenomenon is felt at the start of 2024, including areas in the towns of San Antonio, Licab, and Zaragoza, and some farmlands in Tarlac and Pampanga.

To alleviate the burden of supplying water in Region 3, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. inaugurated the Balbalungao Small Reservoir Irrigation Project (BSRIP) in Lupao, Nueva Ecija on 13 December in the hope of supplying water to 967.19 hectares of farmland in the said town. Still not enough to provide much-needed water to Central Luzon especially since that rain is scarcer than it was last year.

The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) provided a forecast that El Niño would peak in April this coming year. DOST Secretary Renato Solidum said that 63 provinces may experience severe drought conditions during El Niño. He added that all provinces will be affected depending on the month, but the peak will be in April where 63 provinces will experience below rainfall levels of 21 percent lower.

To provide answers for the looming crisis, President Marcos has revived the 2001 executive order creating the Task Force El Niño, which will be chaired by Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro and co-chaired by Solidum.

The President aims to start preparations for the crisis early and resolve possible interventions, with Teodoro adding that the EO will create an interagency collaboration on a national level to answer potential problems caused by El Niño. Teodoro added that since the first responders will be the local government units, the DOST will inform them on the conditions whether or not they can declare a state of calamity and use their calamity funds. With the impressive growth in rice production for the first six months of 2023, pundits mused that the next year would be a struggle.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) confirmed that palay output from January to June 2023 rose to 9 million metric tons (MMT), from 8.7 MMT produced for the same period last year and in 2021, a figure higher than what the Department of Agriculture earlier projected.

President Marcos said that this 3-percent growth is excellent news, adding that the higher production figure is a big boost to the country's rice supply, which is sufficient until the end of the year even with the impact of super typhoon Egay.

Despite the country being on a roll, with 9 MMT palay production for the first half of 2023, higher than the production levels for the first half output of 2022 and 2021, all that the country can do is brace for the El Niño impact next year.

President Marcos' thrust of pushing the Philippines into an agricultural powerhouse in Southeast Asia might be halted by the El Niño phenomenon. With Indonesia leading the agricultural landscape of the said region followed by Vietnam, the Philippines might get a new standing as long as the national government provides the correct answers to this looming crisis. To reach that status, Central Luzon's agricultural landscape is the key.