‘The less rainy days recently must have helped prevent food supply spoilage and allowed uninterrupted harvesting activities. Better weather conditions resulting in easing food supply constraints have enabled disinflation’
Economists believe inflation in November slowed within the 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent range due to cheaper fuel and food prices.
In October, the inflation rate dropped to 4.9 percent from 6.1 percent mainly due to lower rice prices, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. However, this is still above the ideal range of 2 to 4 percent.
Carlo Asuncion, chief economist of Union Bank of the Philippines, said last month's inflation must be slower at 4.2 percent after global oil prices declined.
"The persistent decline in global oil due to supply issues within major supplier OPEC+ have enabled disinflation to tarry along," he said.
Fallen to four-month lows
Michael Ricafort, chief economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation, said the prices have also fallen to four-month lows since the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars began.
Ricafort expects 4.3 percent for November inflation.
Bloomberg data show that crude oil stood at $78 per barrel based on the United States' WTI and $83 per barrel from Europe's Brent, lower than previous prices of over $90 per barrel.
Asuncion added that the less rainy days recently must have helped prevent food supply spoilage and allowed uninterrupted harvesting activities. "Better weather conditions resulting in easing food supply constraints have enabled disinflation," he said.
For his part, Domini Velasquez, chief economist of China Banking Corporation, estimates that inflation in November was at a faster rate of 4.4 percent as prices of some food items, such as fruits, vegetables and fish remained high.
Vegetables and fish were the second biggest contributor to food inflation after wheat products, both with 0.9 percentage point out of the total 7.1 percent food inflation, data from the statistics authority revealed.
Faster inflation
Ricafort said faster inflation from food shortage is still possible amid the threats of drought caused by El Niño, which the weather bureau projects to become "stronger" based on recent sea temperatures.
Velasquez also said some petroleum products and power rates increased last month, signaling a relatively slight change in inflation.
"Although domestic pump prices have continued to decrease since October, the significant price increases in LPG and electricity rates offset this decline. While areas serviced by
Meralco experienced only a slight increase in electricity rates, other regions in Luzon and Visayas saw substantial increases in electricity rates," she said.
Asuncion said prices of most goods or non-volatile items, such as food and fuel under core inflation must still come down substantially to help the government reach the ideal inflation rate.
"We also estimate November core inflation to settle at 4.9 percent from 5.3 percent the previous period. This means more for the longer-term expectation for headline inflation," he said.
Not a smooth linear path
"What remains certain is that we will not see a smooth, linear monthly path towards the BSP's inflation target of 4 percent or less amid ongoing geopolitical risks that curb material downside risk to oil prices," he added.
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