Business groups believe Christmas spending by consumers will be tamer this year compared to a year ago due to several economic uncertainties.

Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry president George Barcelon told DAILY TRIBUNE that uncertainties worsened by the Israel-Hamas conflict and prospects of a higher policy rate from the US Federal Reserve might restrain consumer spending by Filipinos this year.

"Holiday spending this year will not be better than last year because consumers see too many uncertainties," Barcelon said.

"Scrooge" is the fictional protagonist in Charles Dickens's 1843 novella "A Christmas Carol." He is a cold-hearted miser who despises Christmas.

Nonetheless, Barcelon said overall consumption will be higher in the coming months with the Christmas gift-giving and social gatherings.

He said the Israel-Hamas conflict might fuel expectations of more oil price hikes, initially stirred by announcements of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia until next year and the latter's war against Ukraine.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the Monetary Board is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East with a possible rate hike as inflation accelerated again to 6.1 percent last month.

The BSP imposed a 6.25-percent policy rate, while global analysts believe the US Federal Reserve might raise its own rate by 0.25 basis points.

Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said notable consumption levels might be seen in gadgets, home accessories, and tourism this year despite a possibly higher interest rate.

"These are the usual gifts of Filipinos, and there are other countries we visit for Christmas vacations, not Israel. Moderate consumption is expected this year due to the economic slowdown globally," he said.

Makati Business Club chairman Edgar Chua said companies already feel the effects of the elevated inflation and interest rates.

"We are seeing some slowdown in consumer spending here and abroad due to global uncertainties and high-interest rates. Traditionally, the Christmas season brings higher consumer spending in the Philippines, but in real terms, the value may not be as high," he said.

To encourage more business activities for the rest of the year, Chua said the government must quickly address food prices.