A high-ranking official of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the country's largest business organization, said remittances of overseas Filipino workers will become the country's saving grace for the economy to be sound and stable until the year ends.

During the PCCI's press conference on Thursday for the 49th Philippine Business Conference and Expo happening on 25 to 26 October at The Manila Hotel, Perry Ferrer, PCCI's vice president for Industry Affairs, said dollars sent home by OFWs in December to their families will play a pivotal role to tame the fluctuating peso.

"For this year, we expect some $13 to $14 billion to be sent by OFWs this 4th quarter, enough to make the dollar tame. Also, Christmas is the spending season so money will surely revolve during that time," Ferrer said.

As of 12 October, the Philippine peso versus the dollar was at P56.68, nearly reaching the P57 mark.

Asked if the country's gross domestic product will hit the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas target of 6.0-7.0 percent for 2023, Ferrer said it will not.

Moderate growth
Last month, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office group head and principal economist Runchana Pongsaparn said the Philippines' economic growth is projected to a moderate 5.9 percent in 2023 due to high base effects and weaker external demand, before edging up to 6.5 percent in 2024 as external demand recovers.

On the other hand, he said domestic demand is expected to remain robust supported by continued improvement in labor market conditions, lower inflation, robust overseas remittances, and higher government infrastructure spending.

"Headline CPI inflation is projected to moderate to 5.5 percent in 2023 from 5.8 percent in 2022, and slow further to 3.8 percent in 2024. Despite some moderation, inflationary pressure will likely remain elevated as reflected in the high level of core inflation, due to a positive output gap and the second-round effects induced by increases in the minimum wages and expectations of persistently high inflation," Pongsaparn said.

Added burden
For his part, PCCI president George Barcelon said there are several factors that can make the country's economic performance in the fourth quarter to be bumpy and facing headwinds.

"Nearly two and a half months, we are facing another uncertainty because of the Middle East conflict that we hope will not flare up. We also hope that other remaining Middle Eastern countries will not be involved because all oil-producing countries are in the Middle East. This is a concern for us," Barcelon explained.

He said an increase in oil prices in the World Market due to the conflict between militant Hamas and the Israeli government will make higher fuel prices here in the Philippines, an oil importer, which can make inflation accelerate anew.

"There is also this concern that the US Federal Reserve could possibly adjust interest rates. If we do not mirror the increase in interest rates, the peso will be devalued further. Given all these issues, this will make consumers buy less than what they can buy before. This might affect our economy. We are hopeful that this 'ber' month will perk up the spirit of consumers," he said.

This year's PBC&E is themed "Vision 2050: The Philippines, A First-world Economy," set to be graced by over 1,500 local and foreign delegates.

The opening day will be graced by Vice President Sara Duterte, also the concurrent secretary of Education.

VP's commitment
The 49th PBC&E chairperson, Architect Felino Palafox Jr. said that VP Sara's attendance at the conference is a show of her commitment to collaboratively work with the private sector in bringing the country's educational system and workforce to first-world standards.

"Upgrading our educational system is really crucial towards achieving the 2050 vision. We should invest in the future of our young population so they can contribute to the economic prosperity of our country," Palafox said.

Discussions in the two-day conference will focus on education, infrastructure, industry competitiveness and local governance and will also feature messages from foreign officials.

It will conclude with the handing over of a set of policy recommendations to the President.