Ukraine military to collapse without U.S. aid, experts warn
Ukraine’s bid to recover territories occupied by Russia faces big challenge
Daily TribuneUkraine’s bid to recover territories occupied by Russia faces big challenge
Defense and national security experts are sounding the alarm on the cutting of United States assistance to Ukraine's military after the US Congress passed a stopgap budget law without funding for Kyiv.
"It would be devastating for the Ukrainians" if US aid is halted, Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the national security think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.
"The Ukrainian military would weaken and then ultimately perhaps collapse," though it "might be able to just hold on on the defensive," Cancian said.
The United States has committed more than $43 billion in security aid since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — over half the total from all Western donors.
It has supplied a vast arsenal to help Kyiv fight to regain territory seized by Russia, ranging from small arms ammunition and artillery rounds to vehicles, sophisticated rocket launchers, tanks and mine-clearing equipment.
"Militaries in conflict need a continuous flow of weapons and supplies and munitions to replace what's destroyed and gets used up," Cancian said.
The European Union is prepared to stand by Ukraine "for as long as it takes" and the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell reiterated this during the gathering of the bloc's foreign ministers in Kyiv on Monday.
Dozens of countries — especially in Europe — have provided military aid to Ukraine, and while they could increase support, picking up all the slack left by Washington would be a major long-term challenge.
It would require a "years and decades-long effort to get Europe to a place where (it) could fully replace the US as a kind of military power, or a defense industrial power," James Black, assistant director of the defense and security research group at RAND Europe, said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin — who played a key role in forging an international coalition to back Ukraine, and then in coordinating assistance — called over the weekend for Congress to take action.
Lawmakers should make good on "America's commitment to provide urgently needed assistance to the people of Ukraine as they fight to defend their own country against the forces of tyranny," Austin said in a statement.
"America must live up to its word and continue to lead."
WITH AFP
