Economy will defy odds, grow in 2023
GDP growth ‘could normalize’ to around six percent to 6.5 percent in 2023 and beyond with the stabilization of the GDP base/denominator since there were no more lockdowns in 2022
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Daily TribuneGDP growth ‘could normalize’ to around six percent to 6.5 percent in 2023 and beyond with the stabilization of the GDP base/denominator since there were no more lockdowns in 2022
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Despite a looming global recession, independent economists said it is unlikely that Philippine growth will slow down next year.
In an emailed report, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said the Philippines' gross domestic product growth for 2022 is estimated at around 7.5 percent to 7.7 percent.
He attributed the GDP growth to "lower base/denominator effects" because of "some pockets of lockdowns in 2021."
Ricafort added the country's GDP growth "could normalize" to around six percent to 6.5 percent in 2023 and beyond with the stabilization of the GDP denominator since there were no more lockdowns in 2022.
In a separate report, First Metro Investment Corp. and the University of Asia and the Pacific Capital Markets Research said that it does not think the country's GDP growth will slow down a lot next year.
"The ongoing global economic slowdown will not likely heavily impact the country's GDP growth, since the country relies more on domestic demand as its main driver," FMIC and UA&P said.
They said that the economy's growth next year will likely be slower than the expected growth of 7.3 percent in 2022.
The economy grew by 7.6 percent in the third quarter, which was faster than expected, which may bring the country's average growth from January to September to 7.7 percent.
Even though employment will likely slow down after Christmas, FMIC and UA&P say it will likely stay above the levels seen in the first half of the year, which is enough to keep consumer spending strong.
Inflation rate to ease
Inflation for 2022 could average around 5.8 percent and could ease to 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2023, Ricafort said.
He mentioned that the year-on-year inflation "would ease largely" due to easing global crude oil prices already eased to near 1-year lows recently.
He added that other global commodity prices in recent months also declined amid aggressive Fed rate hikes that increase the odds of a US recession.
Meanwhile, FMIC and UA&P think the inflation rate will drop in the first quarter.
"We think that it will ease starting next month to around six percent in the first quarter and below that by second quarter," FMIC and UA&P said.
