Presidential election ‘breaks’ Brazil
Division engulfs Brazil as comebacking Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro contest the presidency
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Division engulfs Brazil as comebacking Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro contest the presidency
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AFP) — Brazil votes Sunday in a polarizing presidential election, with all eyes on whether front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva can win in a single round — and whether incumbent Jair Bolsonaro will accept the result.
The campaign, which left the Latin American giant deeply divided, ended with former president Lula (2003 to 2010) leading ex-army captain Bolsonaro with 50 percent of valid votes to 36 percent, according to a final poll from the Datafolha institute released Saturday evening.
The figures put Lula on the cusp of the score needed to win outright and avoid a runoff on 30 October: half the valid votes, plus one.
But Bolsonaro, known for his combative style, has repeatedly said "only God" can remove him from office, attacked supposed fraud in Brazil's electronic voting system, and vowed his re-election bid can have just three outcomes: "Prison, death or victory."
Lula, the charismatic but tarnished ex-president seeking to stage a comeback at 76, says he fears the incumbent will create "turmoil" if he loses — a concern heard often in Brazil heading into election day.
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Bolsonaro's attacks on the voting system have raised fears of a Brazilian version of the riots that erupted at the United States Capitol last year after his political role model, former president Donald Trump, refused to accept his election loss.
"I do think (Bolsonaro) will contest the election result if he loses," political analyst Adriano Laureno of consulting firm Prospectiva said.
"But that doesn't mean he'll succeed. The international community will recognize the result quickly… There might be some kind of turmoil and uncertainty around the transition, but there's no risk of a democratic rupture."
Observers from the Organization of American States, the Carter Center, the Inter-American Union of Electoral Organizations and other international bodies will be monitoring the vote.
The White House meanwhile said the US would be watching the vote "closely."
More than 500,000 security-force members will be deployed on election day.
Public Security Minister Anderson Torres sought to downplay fears of unrest.
"We're having an election, not a war," he said.
Heavyweight bout
Lula, the ex-metalworker who rose from destitute poverty to become the most popular president in Brazilian history, is seeking to stage a remarkable return, four years after falling spectacularly from grace when he was jailed for 18 months on controversial corruption charges.
Accused in a massive graft scheme centered on state-run oil company Petrobras, Lula regained the right to run for office last year when the Supreme Court annulled his convictions, ruling the lead judge in the case was biased.
In the meantime, Bolsonaro, 67, who swept to office on a wave of anti-establishment outrage in 2018, has lost his outsider shine.
Vowing to defend "God, country and family," the president retains the die-hard backing of his "Bibles, bullets and beef" base — Evangelical Christians, security hardliners and the powerful agribusiness sector.
But he has lost moderate voters with his management of the weak economy, his vitriolic attacks on Congress, the courts and the press, a surge in destruction in the Amazon rainforest, and his failure to contain the devastation of Covid-19, which has claimed more than 685,000 lives in Brazil.
