Industry leaders forecast stronger nickel production and outbound shipments in 2020 on the back of higher prices and a nickel export ban by Indonesia.
In a spot interview, Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) Chairman Clarence Pimentel said they anticipate higher production driven by the Indonesian nickel ore ban.
“We are looking at stronger production next year with the Indonesian ore ban. We are looking forward to seeing what the market holds. We hope the prices will keep a little bit,” Pimentel told reporters.
Pimentel said the Philippines is 25 percent more ore production this year. Thus, higher prices are expected towards the end of the year.
Pimentel also said a clearer government stance on revenue-sharing from mineral extraction, open-pit mining ban, and a moratorium on the issuance of new mining permits all help boost new investments.
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PNIA president Dante Bravo said higher production is forecast next year as mining companies ramp up their productions as more mines resume their operations.
“I’m not sure about the percentage increase next year because that would depend on prices, particularly for lower grade nickel because it is where the added volume, (where we) will be coming from. But overall, we see improvement,” Bravo said.
Based on the latest data from Fitch Solution Macro Research, local production from 2016 to 2019 fell by an average of 22.7 percent as a result of the suspension order imposed against some of the country’s mining sites.
The research also said the Indonesian ban will boost the country’s nickel production.
Indonesia has banned nickel ore exports since 2020 in a bid to develop the processing industry and capturing more value-added from the nickel trade.
The ban is forecast to create an opportunity for Philippines nickel miners in the coming years.
Bravo said the ban will alleviate the impending supply shortfall in Indonesia.
According to Mines and Geosciences Bureau, nickel production grew 3 percent to 11.306 million dry metric tons in the first half of 2019.
The United States Geological Survey noted in a report published in February that in 2018, Indonesia was the top nickel producer with 560,000 tons, followed by the Philippines, with 340,000 tons.
