Maroons’ nightmare

What many wanted to be a dream season for UP is fast approaching to have a nightmarish ending.

Welcome to the nightmare of University of the Philippines (UP) fans.

As the final buzzer at the end of University of Santo Tomas’ (UST) resounding victory over the higher seeded Fighting Maroons sounded last Sunday at the Smart Araneta Coliseum, one thing was obvious and could not be understated: UP is on the ropes and, maybe, no amount of talent or athleticism can save it now.

Before we chew in that bone, however, we need to rewind a little bit.

Let us remember that by the time the Final Four was set, not a few people felt that the most dangerous team not named Ateneo de Manila University was UST.

It’s simply because the Growling Tigers are the most explosive team in the entire league. They were hella streaky, sure, but when they were on fire, even the mighty Blue Eagles aren’t safe. Remember, Ateneo felt the heat during their razor-thin, one-point win in the first round of eliminations.

Also, UST seemed to posses a perfect brew of ingredients to throttle up the stepladder and into the Season 82 University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) men’s basketball finals.

In fact, the Tigers were the winners of three of their last four elimination round game and that this team went 3-1 over Far Eastern University (FEU) and UP combined.

Of course, by now, we also know that they had season Most Valuable Player Soulemane Chabi Yo and Rookie of the Year Mark Nonoy in addition to newcomer extraordinaire Rhenz Abando and steady holdovers like Renzo Subido, CJ Cansino and Zachary Huang.

Many felt if UST would beat FEU in their knockout contest, UP would be hard-pressed to defeat the Tigers twice in their semifinal matchup despite the Fighting Maroons having the coveted twice-to-beat advantage.

Remember also that UP was actually swept by UST in the eliminations. The Fighting Maroons bowed to the Growling Tigers, 85-69, in the first round before another convincing 84-78 count in the second round.

Oh, and don’t forget that the man steering UST’s ship has a knack for coming up big in the knockout rounds. If you need proof, you don’t have to look far as Letran college, which is also in the finals of the National Collegiate Athletic Association, can remind you about its 2015 title run.

After dropping Sunday’s crucial encounter, 69-89, UP must now regroup and muster enough chutzpah to meet its dreaded tormentor again and hope for the highly improbable — a win by no matter how big or small a margin against a squad that has crushed it by an average of 14.0 points.

In those three games that UST dropped UP on its knees, the Maroons biggest problems were their turnovers, defending the perimeter and getting consistent plays from their chief playmaker in Jun Manzo.

First, UP has given up a staggering total of 106 three-point attempts to UST, which comes out to an average of 35.3 three-point attempts per game. Mind you, the Tigers are going to chuck it at every given opportunity, and the Maroons have willingly obliged.

The result — UST shoots 34 percent from beyond the arc and sinks 12.0 triples per game against UP.

In contrast, UP coach Bo Perasol’s wards have shot just 19 out of 83 or 23 percent from the three-point range against the Tigers. That comes out to just 6.3 triples per game for the Maroons, and their shooting performance last Sunday was, by far, the worst at a dismal 3 for 17.

It’s no wonder, then, that UP is actually second worse in perimeter defense as it allowed 30.3 points per game entering the unfortunate affair. UST, take note, ended up scoring 35 perimeter points on UP.

Next, UST’s defense just knows how to pounce on UP’s offense and force turnovers.

At the end of the eliminations, UP averaged 16.4 turnovers per game. But in the stepladder against UST, the Maroons coughed the ball up 22 times, resulting to 21 points-off-turnovers for the Tigers.

The chief culprit was Bright Akhuetie, who registered a total of eight turnovers.

On the other end, UP’s own defense hasn’t really been up to snuff.

In three games against UST, the Maroons forced an average of just 13.3 turnovers. Much of why that’s the case could be seen in their previous loss, where, too many times, UP’s defense had missed rotations leading to open shots, gambled too often on pokes and taps, and saw its big men too slow running back down to defend the break.

Lastly, UP needs Manzo to step up, take charge of his team’s offense, and dictate the tempo of the game.

UP has thrived on its talent, especially in the open court, but I think it’s clear that UST is just better than the Maroons at that kind of ballgame. Perasol and his staff need to change things up heading into their rubber match, and Manzo should be a big part of the equation.

Against UST, Manzo has put up 5.7 points per game while shooting under 29 percent from the field.

More importantly, though, he allowed UST’s Renzo Subido to outplay him.

In three matches, Subido has averaged 11.3 points and 2.7 triples per game while shooting 43 percent from the floor.

It’s clear that UP needs Manzo to stake his claim as the best floor general in this series.

Having said all that, UP’s chances at winning over UST and advancing to its second UAAP finals in a row are not very good.

Make no mistake, the Maroons are in the exact situation they didn’t want to be.

For sure, they wanted to get rid of the pesky UST as quickly as possible, but it seems like the Tigers are the Maroons’ contrapelo.

What many wanted to be a dream season for UP is fast approaching to have a nightmarish ending.