As I write this, excitement is mounting in Season 82 University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 82 men’s basketball tournament Final Four.

By the time you’re reading this, we would have already known if either top-seeded Ateneo de Manila University had successfully swept the elimination round and booked an automatic Finals seat or if the University of the Philippines (UP) had inflicted the Blue Eagles’ first loss of the season.

Whatever the result, however, it’s clear that we already have our Final Four teams locked in.

De La Salle University, Adamson University, University of the East and National University (NU) have been eliminated from title contention, paving the way for University of Santo Tomas (UST), Far Eastern University (FEU) and UP to contest for the title along with the three-peat-seeking Blue Eagles.

Let’s break down the chances of each of the Final Four teams moving forward into the Final Four.

The Growling Tigers finished with 8-6 win-loss slate at the end of their eliminations campaign.

That’s quite impressive considering that this team had just a total of six wins in Seasons 80 and 81 combined.

Under head coach Aldin Ayo’s watch, the Growling Tigers have shown a tremendous amount of versatility, explosiveness, and resiliency. Remember that this squad was mired in the middle of the league table with a 5-5 record before winning three of their last four games, including huge wins over UP and Adamson.

They should have healthy confidence as they enter the Final Four, whether they would go through the stepladder or directly against the defending champions.

In terms of personnel, UST can compete with the best of the UAAP.

Soulemane Chabi Yo has been rock-solid with 16.9 points per game (ppg) and 14.7 rebounds per game (rpg) while shooting 51.7 percent from the field. Transferee Rhenz Abando has been a revelation, too, putting up 12.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 1.2 bpg while drilling 2.3 triples per outing.

No wonder he was subject to some perceived poaching ninja moves a couple of weeks ago, eh?

Aside from those two, though, Ayo needs other guys to step up.

Rookie Mark Nonoy has been promising but inconsistent while veterans Renzo Subido, Brent Paraiso, CJ Cansino, and Zach Huang need to raise their level of play as well.

UST won’t be the favorites to be the last team standing in the Final Four, but they are legitimate threats.

The Tamaraws are set to make their seventh straight Final Four appearance, proof that this program has been one of the best in recent memory.

FEU coach Olsen Racela has at his disposal a very resilient corps of players who, at one point in the first round, already looked headed for the offseason.

Remember the shock loss to NU that put them near the bottom with a 2-4 slate? Yeah, that’s ancient history now as far as these Tamaraws are concerned. Since then, FEU has gone 6-2, including winning their last three assignments against La Salle, Adamson, and UE.

Momentum is on FEU’s side heading into the Final Four, and it’ll be interesting if that’ll be enough to lift it past either UST or UP in its next game.

This team, based on some numbers, is actually reminiscent of Ateneo, which shouldn’t be much of a surprise since both squads speak pretty much the same basketball language and utilize very similar systems and schemes.

Racela, after all, is like Ateneo coach Tab Baldwin as both of them are astute students of the game.

The proof is in the pudding, what with FEU being the only team with nobody among the top ten scorers of the season.

Like Ateneo, FEU prides itself in spreading the wealth and in roster balance. The Tamaraws’ leading scorer is LJ Gonzales with 10.8 ppg, followed by Wendell Comboy at 10.4 ppg. After them, there are four guys who average 6.0 points or more per game.

If push comes to shove, FEU’s balance and discipline may be enough for them to pull off an upset or two in the Final Four.

With the exception of the 13-0 Blue Eagles, the Fighting Maroons are actually the hottest team in the league right now, reeling off three straight thrilling victories over Adamson, NU, and La Salle.

Sure, maybe so, but I personally chalk that up to how this team has had to go through an extended feeling out process for much of the elimination before kind of settling into a groove and having their chemistry click late in the second round.

There’s also no question that man for man, UP may just have the deepest team in college basketball. I mean, the list of big names for this squad goes on and on, headlined by Kobe Paras, Bright Akhuetie, Ricci Rivero, and the Gomez de Liaño brothers.

This is also, hands down and by far, the most exciting team of the season. Sure, they dug themselves into a bit of a hole with unexpected defeats to UST and FEU, but remember, too, that this is a very talented team laced with Finals experience.

At this stage, that counts for something.

Looking ahead, it goes without saying that UP will only go as far as Kobe and his boys take them. Despite their depth, they are somewhat underdogs when it comes to the Final Four.

They lost both of their games to UST, went 1-1 against FEU, and were dismantled by Ateneo in the first round (89-63).

Regardless of whether they derail the Eagles’ sweep bid or not, UP will have an uphill climb in the Final Four.

And if they manage to win it all, though, well, then that would be a journey for the books.

Baldwin’s crew is borderline predictable, if not boring.

That’s not a knock on the champs, though. Rather, it’s a commentary on just how efficient they have been throughout the entire season.

Remember that the last time Ateneo lost was to FEU in the first round of Season 81. It means these guys have strung together 23 wins in a row.

If that’s not proof of how much Baldwin has “solved the Philippine basketball riddle,” then I don’t really know what is.

The Eagles lord it over the field in most stat categories, but you need to understand really only two — points scored and points allowed. Ateneo is second-best in scoring with 76.2 ppg while also giving up the fewest points per game at 59.2 ppg. That means that, on average, Ateneo wins its games by 17.0 ppg.

That’s the true worth of this team, and that tells the story of why they’re favorites to win it all in unprecedentedly convincing fashion.

Of course, it also helps that Thirdy Ravena has been amazing, Ange Kouame remains a double-double behemoth, and veterans like Adrian Wong, the Nieto twins, Isaac Go, and Will Navarro among others remain consistently unflappable.

It will take nothing short of a miracle for Ateneo to not be the Season 82 champions, but hey, in the Final Four, anything can happen.