Pork production forecast trimmed amid ASF scare

Farmers are unlikely to begin rebuilding herds while the epidemic is still ongoing, and even when monthly outbreaks subside, it can take up to a year for new animals to be ready for slaughter.

One month after the government reported an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in the country, Fitch Solutions Macro Research slashed its forecast for the Philippine pork output for 2020.

In a research note, Fitch Solutions said pork production could fall 1.5 percent year-on-year to 1.6 million tons in 2020. The drop would be the first in the Philippines in four years.

“Farmers are unlikely to begin rebuilding herds in these countries while the epidemic is still ongoing, and even when monthly outbreaks subside, it can take up to a year for new animals to be ready for slaughter,” Fitch explained.

Fitch said the ASF virus will continue to affect the country’s local swine industry, given that about 65 percent of the country’s pig population is located in backyard farms, where ASF has a tendency to spread quickly.

Apart from the projected sharp decline in pork production, Fitch said the widening pork supply gap in Asia could also put inflationary pressure on food prices.

However, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia already said the ASF situation in the country “will have no impact” on the country’s headline inflation.

Since pork production is anticipated to decrease, imported pork products are now seen to spike up.

Fitch also warned that the other disease-stricken Asian countries may have trouble importing meat as international prices have risen. It expects pork consumption in these countries to decline.

As of writing, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has already culled more than 20,000 pigs.

“To date, the DA Crisis Management Task Force on Swine has reported that about 12,000 head of swine tested positive of ASF in more than 20 barangays in Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga and Quezon City,” the DA said in its latest ASF report late Wednesday.

Despite the anticipated downtrend, pork production is expected to recover and grow at 3 percent annually from 2021 to 2023.

Data from the research firm show the country’s pork production stood at 1.640 million tons last year, translating to a 2.4 increase from 1.602 million tons in the previous year.

Aside from the Philippines, Fitch also scaled back its 2020 pork production forecast for China and Vietnam to 35.9mn (-5.0 percent y-o-y), 2.3mn (-3.7 percent y-o-y), respectively.