With the New Year festivities over, now comes the focus on the midterm polls some five months away that really will determine the political strength and influence of the existing political parties and the virtual death of many other parties.

At this time, however, President Duterte, entering his third year in office, is certainly showing political strength, despite the high inflation, the shrill criticisms from human rights groups here and abroad and even with the local and international media pitching in against Duterte and his war on drugs. He still reigns supreme, what with a very high public approval rating.

The Palace was, of course, ecstatic over the high rating, with the presidential spokesman saying “The consistent satisfaction rating of President Duterte puts a lie to critics and detractors who find nothing good in his style of governance,” adding the public support for the President “also sends a strong message to foreign human rights groups and foreign governments to put a stop to their baseless and unkind accusations on his war on drugs.”

Of course, not to be left out, media hog Sen. Antonio Trillanes tried casting doubt on the high marks obtained by Duterte, saying “Nobody would believe that seven out of every 10 Filipinos were satisfied with how Mr. Duterte was running the government because life had been hard in the country and the administration had committed a lot of blunders.”

What is more likely is that 10 out of 10 Filipinos don’t believe anything Trillanes spews out, just to get media publicity.

It is better for him this year, which will be his last in the Senate, to zip his mouth. He will be as irrelevant as Leila de Lima. But who knows? Trillanes may even land in jail yet. There are three more years of Duterte and Trillanes can hardly be certain of his future.

It also will be almost impossible at this time for coup plotters to succeed in toppling Duterte — which is of course the wish of the yellows, since ousting Duterte would translate to the country having a yellow vice president, Leni Robredo, ascending to the presidency, which means it will be the Liberal Party that will be in power and position again.

And happy days will be here again for the yellows, the bishops, priests, nuns, Leila de Lima, who seems to think that she will go scot-free with a President Leni and, of course, Antonio Trillanes, who hopes for a Cabinet position under a yellow Palace tenant.

The way it looks at this time and going by the surveys, it will be yet another victory for Duterte, which means that whether a congressman runs and wins under another party, he still ends up a supporter of Duterte and the next crop of congressmen will still be for Duterte who will continue to control the House of Representatives.

If the senatorial surveys are any gauge, then the number of current Liberal senators and some of their allies won’t even increase and may even decrease in number, what with Trillanes out of the picture and even Bam Aquino if he does not make it to the Senate again.

However, this may not translate to Duterte getting his federal government going before he leaves Malacañang in 2022, since the Senate is likely to remain fairly independent and will stand its ground when it comes down to its refusal for a joint congressional vote on constituting the Senate and the House as a constituent assembly, even if the House agrees that the Senate and the House vote separately.

The only way for a constitutional change to come about is for both the House and the Senate to come up with their respective measures calling for a constitutional convention and set the election date for the delegates to the con-con to be elected at large and leave them to do their job independent of political leanings.

But for now, looking at the political future, it is difficult to predict who the next president will be, given the fact that while Duterte is president, he really has no successor to date, as well as a strong national political party. The Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP) under whose banner he ran is hardly a strong political party. There’s only one current PDP member in the Senate who won. Of course, the House has majority of the congressmen as PDP members.

However, with Duterte out of power by 2022, these PDP congressmen, who before Duterte swore allegiance to various past parties, such as the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, Nacionalista Party, Lakas, PM, Laban, Liberals and United Nationalist Democratic Organization will also be ex-PDP members and will fade into nothingness in 2022.

It all will depend on who emerges as the winning presidential candidate in 2022. At this time, however, that 2022 winning candidate appears invisible in the horizon.

What is definite is that it won’t be Leni or Trillanes and especially not Leila de Lima.