Just when we thought the silencing of guns in the South will follow the enactment of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), the Lamitan (Basilan) terror attack happened.

Sketchy reports about the dastardly “huramentado” (amok) attack fueled rumors along with analyses of something worse from several quarters. More than a dozen casualties were reported.

Experts, notably Dr. Rohan Gunaratna (I met him in an international forum last year where I spoke about the Marawi war), an internationally known expert on violence and faith-based terrorism, theorized that it was the handiwork of the regional cell of the Islamic State (IS) — the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG). He cited ASG top honcho, Isnilon Hapilon, emir of the regional IS who was killed in the Marawi war, as the logical nexus. There was an oblique reference to the fact that the attack could be a sequel to the horrific serial that started in Marawi. The analysis of Dr. Gunaratna carries weight with his profound knowledge on the subject although he is not infallible.

Take note that this line follows the official statement of the IS through its Amaq agency, the principal propaganda apparatus of the terror group which claimed responsibility. Recent events, however, show the IS has been taking a beating on several fronts and is almost defanged. It has been uprooted and driven away from its capital Iraq and Syria and now in disarray with self-proclaimed caliph Al Bagdhadi either dead or in hiding. The claim over the Basilan attack could be a message of presence and relevance to mujahideen fighters whose morale is undeniably flagging, if not fading inexorably.

IS hoped that the claimed attack could inspire their weary, decimated and dissipated fighters to continue their crusade. In fact, in their desperation, they even claimed as trophy the attacks by the non-IS “lone wolves.”

The Armed Forces of the Philippines maintains it is not yet ready to credit the IS for the attack pending investigations. It is more inclined to believe the attack is part of the sustained campaign by the ASG to sow terror and bolster its lucrative kidnapping for ransom industry. Cynics wished however that the investigation will not go the way of past inquiries now gathering dusts in archives (the convenient excuse of “classified information” or sensibility to national security, are a blanket for cover-up).

Other suspect groups whose interest will not be served by the approval of the BOL. These groups want to prove the BOL is not the true path to peace. But this is a wild shot with less adherents.

My take: These are premature speculations. Being a litigator-lawyer, I say all these hypotheses are just that — assumptions. No hard and verifiable solid evidence is offered that can stand the test of veracity and validity. They are more of syllogism based on a weak premise.

There is more preponderance of opinion that it is the handiwork of ASG acting independently or unsanctioned. It could also be an operation gone awry.

It is best not to subject our people to more terror, fear and stress by circulating speculations and unproven theories by armchair analysts. It’s unkind. The residents have had enough of it for long and it’s unproductive, if not disastrous. The most sensible thing to do in the face of these speculations is to wait for the results of the government probe.

This episode, however, has an unintended benefit — it will put our defense and security forces on their toes to prevent a repeat of the attack. Whether it was caused by an alleged suicide bomber, a jihadist of the IS or a result of premature explosion of an improvised explosive device by other criminal groups, authorities should adopt a proactive strategy to foil any such kind of attack.

Bangsamoro epic nationalism is deeply rooted in every Moro. Historical narratives described their fierce and successful, albeit pyrrhic resistance to foreign invaders. The Marawi tragedy has unraveled that the foreign IS ideology is a wolf in sheep’s clothing deceptively promoted as Islam, which they will resist even if it means leveling into ruins their abode like in Marawi. No explosion of bomb of whatever kind by whosoever can dampen Moro nationalism and their will to fight foreign ideological intrusion.