Near-record global food inventories could help shield consumers from supply disruptions as a potentially powerful El Niño threatens agricultural production across key growing regions.
The weather phenomenon, which is expected to intensify in the coming months, has historically triggered droughts, floods and crop losses worldwide. However, strong harvests over the past several years have left major producers with ample reserves of wheat, rice, corn and soybeans.
“There is a bit of silver lining as far as global stocks and recent harvests of rice and other cereals is concerned,” said United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization economist Shirley Mustafa. She added that existing inventories are likely to cushion part of the impact from El Niño.
Global wheat stocks are projected to reach their highest level in five years, while world rice reserves have climbed to a record high. India, which accounts for about 40 percent of global rice exports, is holding stocks far above government targets.
“India imposed curbs on rice exports during previous El Niño years when production came under pressure,” said a New Delhi-based grain dealer.
“But with record wheat and rice inventories this year, the government is unlikely to restrict rice exports.”
Indonesia and Thailand have also built up supplies and strengthened preparations, including improving irrigation systems and maintaining high reservoir levels to support crop production during dry conditions.
“A strong El Niño forecast would have had a different impact on prices if the world supply was tight,” said commodities analyst Tobin Gorey.
Despite the favorable supply outlook, experts warned that export restrictions and panic buying could still tighten markets if governments move to protect domestic food supplies.
“We have seen it in past how governments react to supply risks and take measure to ensure sufficient local supplies,” Mustafa said.
“Much of that will depend how importers take decisions on purchases and exporters keep the supply pipeline running.”