University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea Professor Jay Batongbacal said on Thursday, the situation at the Scarborough Shoal reminded him of the early developments at Mischief Reef, which eventually evolved into a large artificial island with military facilities over the course of decades in the contested areas of the West Philippine Sea.
In a radio interview with DZRH, Batongbacal recollected that what initially appeared as harmless materials, such as bamboo poles and improvised structures, later progressed into huts, then more permanent facilities, which eventually expanded into a fully developed artificial island.
Batongbacal said a similar pattern may be starting again, stressing the importance of close monitoring and early response to prevent further development.
However, Batongbacal said it is too early to conclude that negotiation has failed.
The professor noted that, based on accessible images, the structures at Scarborough Shoal appear to be anchored, unlike earlier developments in Mischief Reef that were built on foundations.
Batongbacal asserted that China still has the chance to demonstrate “good faith” by removing the structures and halting any further construction plans, as it will eventually convert the shoal into another artificial island.
He further stated that continued construction or installation of structures while negotiations are ongoing could be seen as an action that undermines trust among the nations and weakens diplomatic efforts.
“If such actions continue despite negotiations, it may render the Code of Conduct talks ineffective,” Batongbacal said in Filipino, noting that it can also push the Philippines and Indonesia to strengthen maritime and defense competencies in response to this operation.
The professor also revealed that in previous decades, unauthorized structures in borderline areas were reportedly dismantled by Philippine authorities, though he stressed that today’s geopolitical environment is more complex and dangerous.
Batongbacal cautioned that any enforcement action would require careful consideration due to the heightened risks involved in the current regional situation.