Crude reaching $100 per barrel for the first time since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 may hurt Trump in the midterm elections at the end of the year, especially as he has promised Americans cheap energy.
The UK government expressed concern that the conflict could escalate into a broader Middle East conflict.
“We do not want to see a further escalation into a wider regional conflict,” a government spokesperson said. He said the UK’s “immediate priority” was the safety of its citizens in the region.
The spokesperson also said the UK has “a range of defensive capabilities in the region, which we have recently bolstered. We stand ready to protect our interests.”
A government source pointed out, however, that Britain was not involved in the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was understood to be chairing an emergency meeting of his key Cabinet ministers during the day.
Trump: Destruction, toppling of regime
In a video address after the bombing started, Trump made clear the goal was the destruction of the Islamic Republic’s military and the toppling of the authorities in power since 1979.
“We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally obliterated again. We’re going to annihilate their navy,” Trump said in his address from his Florida home posted to his Truth Social platform.
He urged opponents of the Iranian regime to rise, saying, “The hour of your freedom is at hand.”
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump said. This “will probably be your only chance for generations.”
But in a section of the short speech that was aimed at the US public, Trump acknowledged that “the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost” in what the Pentagon dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”
“We may have casualties,” Trump warned.
Any loss of life on the US side would be politically hazardous for Trump himself, especially after he refuses to seek approval for war against Iran from Congress — and with his own lengthy record of opposing foreign interventions.
A one-day raid to oust the former strongman leader of Venezuela in January was accomplished without US fatalities. Surgical air strikes on Iran’s main nuclear sites last June also went off without US losses.
Bombs dropping everywhere
“Operation Epic Fury” is on an entirely different scale militarily and politically.
An attack was widely expected after Trump ordered the biggest military deployment to the Middle East in years. But critical lawmakers had for days been asking why Trump had not addressed the US public or Congress to explain the need for war.
Fuel costs under threat
Iran remains just inside the world’s top 10 oil producers, even though its output has fallen sharply since the 1970s, particularly due to rounds of US sanctions.
“In 1974, Iran was the third biggest producer in the world after the US and Saudi Arabia, and ahead of Russia, producing some six million barrels per day,” Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, told AFP.
Today, Iran produces about 3.1-million barrels per day, according to the oil-producing cartel OPEC, of which Iran is a member.
This remains a significant amount, and the Islamic Republic is believed to hold the world’s third largest crude reserves, cementing its strategic importance.
Additionally, Iran’s oil industry is in far better shape than that of Venezuela, another country hit by years of US sanctions.
Strait of Hormuz
The main risk to the oil market remains a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has frequently threatened to paralyze.
The waterway is by far the main shipping route connecting the wealthy oil-producing countries of the Middle East to the rest of the world.
Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through it daily in 2024, equivalent to nearly 20 percent of global liquid oil consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The strait is particularly vulnerable owing to its narrow width, around 50 kilometers (30 miles), and its shallow depth, which does not exceed 60 meters (200 feet).
Impact on neighbors
Iran’s neighbors, from the Gulf states to Turkey and Pakistan, fear an Iranian response since their hosting of US military sites places them in the firing line.
“They know they are vulnerable because the Iranians have enough basic intermediate-range missiles that allow them to strike vital points” in the worst-case scenario, noted Pierre Razoux, director of studies at the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.
At-risk infrastructure includes hydrocarbon hubs as well as electrical power and seawater desalination plants, he added.
Soaring oil prices, meanwhile, risk a return to soaring inflation, hurting the global economy.
Filipinos in Israel warned
The Philippine Embassy in Israel has urged all Filipinos in the country to remain indoors as Israel heightens security measures following its missile strikes against Iran, backed by the United States.
In an advisory issued Saturday, the embassy reminded the Filipino community that Israel is currently under “essential activity” status.
Authorities said all schools are closed, public gatherings are banned, and work is limited to essential sectors only.
The advisory comes as Israel remains on high alert, anticipating potential Iranian retaliation.
The embassy strongly encouraged Filipinos to stay inside their homes and be ready to seek immediate shelter if urgent alerts, known locally as tseva adom, are sounded.
The embassy provided a 24/7 emergency hotline for Filipinos in need of assistance: +972 54 466 1188. The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday morning in what President Donald Trump characterized as the beginning of “major combat operations.”
Explosions were heard throughout Tehran, Isfahan, and other parts of Iran during the opening sorties.
Trump vowed to “annihilate” the country’s navy and missile sites, and urged Iranians to overthrow their government.
The conflict could severely disrupt the global supply of crude oil and send prices soaring to levels not seen in years.