As the smoke cleared from the fireworks in Binondo following the Chinese New Year celebration on 17 February, the Philippines galloped headlong into the Year of the Fire Horse.
In the Chinese zodiac, the Horse is defined by its independence, speed, and unbridled energy — traits that serve as both a blessing and a warning when superimposed on the current political landscape.
If 2025 was defined by escalating friction, 2026 feels like the moment the stable doors have been kicked wide open. Just a day after the Lunar New Year, Vice President Sara Duterte stunned the public by officially announcing her 2028 presidential bid.
“A bit too early” was the reflexive consensus among pundits. They pointed to the cautionary tale of former Vice President Jejomar Binay, whose 2016 ambition crumbled after he declared his intent nearly six years in advance. Targeted with a relentless barrage of corruption inquiries that decimated his public image, Binay ultimately tumbled to a fourth-place finish.
In Philippine politics, the “Binay Case” has long stood as a grim warning against the risks of early exposure.
However, it is safe to assume that Duterte — a lawyer backed by a retinue of seasoned strategists — has factored this history into her calculus. Her move was a calculated “shock and awe” tactic, immediately rattling those more concerned with career longevity than constituent service.
Her announcement has already clouded the fate of the impeachment complaints currently looming in the House of Representatives. While pro-administration congressmen previously boasted they had the one-third vote required to impeach the Vice President again, that confidence has visibly evaporated.
By upping the ante, the Vice President has forced lawmakers to weigh their current allegiances against the potential reality of 2028. We are now witnessing the “Fire Horse” energy in real-time.
Expect major shifts in the coming months as congressmen—notoriously pragmatic about their survival — reevaluate their ties to the administration. Moreover, the announcement has prematurely accelerated the election cycle.
Senator Risa Hontiveros, a likely contender, has signaled that the opposition may need to finalize their slate by late this year or early 2027 — far ahead of the traditional schedule.
This political acceleration comes with a price. Ideally, the selection process for national candidates shouldn’t begin until 2027, allowing leaders to focus on governance.
Former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo, who is viewed as a formidable match for presidential contender Sara Duterte, captured this frustration perfectly, reportedly exasperated by the constant queries on 2028 while only recently getting elected to local office: “Di pa nga ako nag-iinit sa pwesto ko.” (I haven’t even warmed my seat.)
Interestingly, her knee-jerk reaction was made a few days before her meeting with President Bongbong Marcos during his very recent trip to Naga City to inspect a flood control project.
Although they were rivals in the 2022 presidential election, that Marcos-Robredo meeting sends a signal that a political coalition is in the works.
As elite rivalries shift into overdrive, the public is left with a glaring question: Will this same “Fire Horse” speed be applied to public accountability? While politicians map out their 2028 trajectories, critical issues remain stuck in the mud. Will there be an accelerated investigation into the systemic failures of our infrastructure? Will our lawmakers finally show the same urgency in passing the anti-dynasty bill as they do in switching political parties?
Malacañang has already distanced itself from the flood control investigations several months after the President uttered his famous “Mahiya naman kayo” line in his State of the Nation Address last July 2025.
The results of the months-long investigations by the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI) and the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee fell short of the administration’s promise of dispensing swift justice and total commitment to accountability by going after the “big fish.”
For a nation at a crossroads, the Year of the Fire Horse offers a choice: To harness this momentum to drive transparency and accountability and meaningful reform, or to simply let the Filipino people be trampled by the impulsive speed of elite ambitions.
(Dr. Dennis C. Coronacion is chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Santo Tomas. He teaches at the UST Faculty of Arts and Letters and UST Graduate School. He notably served as the president of the Philippine Political Science Association (PPSA) from 2021 to 2023, making history as the first faculty member from UST to lead the country’s premier organization of political science scholars. He is also a political analyst and media commentator frequently consulted on national and international issues, including election dynamics and the West Philippine Sea.)