As the Lunar New Year ushered in the Year of the Fire Horse on 17 February, the world is bracing for an astrological force described by traditional astrologers as rare, intense and utterly untamed.
Appearing once every 60 years, the Fire Horse combines the unbridled independence of the horse with the volatile, expansive nature of Yang Fire. In traditional astrology, this is not a gentle canter through meadows; it is a stampede. It stimulates initiative and charisma, but it also unleashes volatility, conflict and a distinct lack of predictability.
To visualize this energy in the geopolitical arena, one needs only look to the current occupant of the White House. US President Donald Trump, with his unfiltered rhetoric and shock-and-awe tactics, appears less like a head of state but more like a rider clinging to the mane of a wild Fire Horse, galloping through the global order and leaving a trail of mayhem in his wake.
The metaphor is uncomfortably apt. Astrologers describe the horse as blunt, impulsive and prone to acting without thinking things through. The Trump administration’s second year has already validated this characterization with stunning speed.
The year opened with the capture of a foreign head of state by US military forces — Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, which stunned allies and adversaries alike.
Days later, Trump threatened military action against Iran and revived discussions on acquiring Greenland, dismissing diplomatic norms with the same casual defiance that defines the Horse sign.
Domestically, his administration continues to bulldoze precedent, rolling back longstanding environmental protections and threatening political opponents, embodying the “double flame” of Fire Horse energy: hot-tempered and reckless.
If the Horse represents action, Fire represents unpredictability. For global trading partners, this translates to uncertainty. On the potential for volatility, conflict and tariffs, the answer is already unfolding in real time.
Trump has imposed a baseline 10-percent tariff on most nations, with a complex system of reciprocal tariffs that has been suspended for a 90-day “grace period,” creating a paralyzing limbo.
Buyers hesitate, logistics firms in affected nations like the Philippines project declines in exports even as foreign clients refuse to fulfill orders, unsure if the cost of goods will double by the time they arrive at port.
This is the Fire Horse’s volatility made manifest — not a steady hand on the tiller, but a rider constantly yanking the reins in different directions, leaving small allied nations like the Philippines in a state of anxiety.
The knee-jerk reaction might be to cling tighter to the alliance, hoping the Philippines-US Mutual Defense Treaty will provide shelter from the storm.
Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez has reassured Filipinos that the defense partnership remains ironclad, noting that the US simply has its sights set on its “own neighborhood.”
But the economic reality tells a different story.
In the face of the Fire Horse’s unpredictability, the worst strategy is to attempt to match its speed or predict its path. Instead, the Philippines — and other nations caught in the crossfire — must be the steady ground beneath the galloping hooves.
First, diversification is no longer optional. The chaos caused by the US tariff pause should serve as a wake-up call. The Philippines must pursue opportunities such as the strengthening of ties within ASEAN, expanding into the Middle East and Europe, and fully leveraging existing free trade agreements. By reducing its reliance on the US market, the country will insulate itself from the whims of a volatile US administration.
Second, move up the value chain. The recent Memorandum of Understanding on critical minerals, particularly nickel processing, inked between the Philippines and the US, offers a path forward. Currently, the Philippines exports raw materials, leaving it vulnerable to price swings and tariffs. By investing in domestic processing, the country shifts from being a mere supplier to an essential link in the global supply chain, making itself too valuable to bully.
Ultimately, the Year of the Fire Horse will be defined by how we respond to its energy. If we try to fight fire with fire, we will be consumed. The ancient wisdom of the zodiac advises us to find a middle ground and to pace ourselves, taking time to reflect before jumping into complex situations.
For the Philippines, this means holding steady. It means acknowledging that while the US alliance is vital, blind alignment with an erratic leader is a recipe for disaster.
The world cannot stop the Fire Horse from galloping, but it can build fences, dig wells, and plant fields so that when the dust settles, there is still a nation standing.